How Will Oracle Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, September 10, 2026. The company has $467 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $67 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $22 billion in operating profits and net income of $17 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Oracle’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 11.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 6/10/2026 | -8.5% | -8.8% | -34.4% |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.2% | 3.5% | -7.4% |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | -20.0% | -8.0% |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | 3.5% | -16.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | -10.1% | -18.7% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| 6/11/2024 | 13.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| 3/11/2024 | 11.7% | 12.0% | 7.0% |
| 12/11/2023 | -12.4% | -8.8% | -8.6% |
| 9/11/2023 | -13.5% | -11.4% | -13.4% |
| 6/12/2023 | 0.2% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| 3/9/2023 | -3.2% | -2.4% | 8.4% |
| 12/12/2022 | -0.9% | -1.0% | 9.6% |
| 9/12/2022 | -1.3% | -10.4% | -18.6% |
| 6/13/2022 | 10.4% | 5.7% | 8.9% |
| 3/10/2022 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% |
| 12/9/2021 | 15.6% | 16.3% | 0.9% |
| 9/13/2021 | -2.8% | -3.1% | 7.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 11.6% | 12.0% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -8.8% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 35.9% | 27.0% | 33.5% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -20.0% | -34.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A lower-risk approach is to identify the strongest correlation between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns and trade on that relationship—provided the correlation is high enough to be actionable. For example, over a 5-year horizon, 1D_5D shows the strongest relationship (-22.3%), suggesting an inverse move over the subsequent five days. Over the shorter 3-year window, however, 5D_21D exhibits the strongest correlation at +26.6%
Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -22.3% | -0.1% | 6.8% |
| 3Y History | -18.5% | 13.7% | 26.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Oracle stock compared with the stock performance of CRM, a peer that reported earnings just before Oracle. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL Earnings Dates | ORCL | CRM |
| 6/10/2026 | -8.5% | -0.8% |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | 3.7% |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | -4.9% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | -3.3% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | -4.0% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | 11.0% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | -0.7% |
| 6/11/2024 | 13.3% | -19.7% |
| 3/11/2024 | 11.7% | 3.0% |
| 12/11/2023 | -12.4% | 9.4% |
| 9/11/2023 | -13.5% | 3.0% |
| 6/12/2023 | 0.2% | -4.7% |
| 3/9/2023 | -3.2% | 11.5% |
| 12/12/2022 | -0.9% | -8.3% |
| 9/12/2022 | -1.3% | -3.4% |
| 6/13/2022 | 10.4% | 9.9% |
| 3/10/2022 | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| 12/9/2021 | 15.6% | -11.7% |
| 9/13/2021 | -2.8% | 2.7% |
| CORRELATION | -42.8% |
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