Can Franco-Nevada Stock Jump 50%?
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Franco-Nevada (FNV) stock would need to reach about $340 to jump 50% from its October 23, 2026 close. Hitting that mark would require the company to keep growing its gold and silver revenue while retaining most of it as profit. Investors currently pay 29.9 times earnings, below the stock’s average of 42.3 at recent quarter-ends. So what could three more years of that business be worth per share?
What Could Franco-Nevada Stock Be Worth In Three Years?
Under the scenario set out below, Franco-Nevada stock would be worth about $404.64 in three years, climbing 76.9% above the October 23 close before counting dividends.
Multiplying revenue by the net margin yields earnings, and multiplying those earnings by the P/E produces the market value. In this scenario, sales rise 30% a year, a cap on the 62.6% yearly pace the model’s growth rule would otherwise give. The model sets the net margin at 70% of today’s 63.8% and 30% of its 22.4% average over the 12 earlier quarter-ends, so the margin falls to 51.4%. The P/E stays at today’s level. The stock’s higher average comes from quarter-ends since late 2023, excluding four periods with losses.
The table below sets today’s figures beside the scenario’s projections.
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.32 billion | $5.09 billion |
| Net margin | 63.8% | 51.4% |
| Earnings | $1.48 billion | $2.61 billion |
| P/E | 29.9 | 29.9 |
| Share price | $228.75 | $404.64 |
All of the gain originates from revenue, which more than doubles. Revenue accounts for 138% of the upside, while the lower margin takes back the equivalent of 38%.
Where Franco-Nevada’s Revenue Growth Comes From
Franco-Nevada earns most of its revenue from royalty and stream assets in precious metals. Precious Metals revenue was $1.56 billion in fiscal 2025. That figure represented 85.7% of the company’s total and grew 81.3% from fiscal 2024.
Management said the performance of its assets, combined with stronger commodity prices, lifted revenue 57% in the second quarter of 2026. Gold averaged 38% more than a year earlier in that quarter, and silver averaged 118% more. The company also sold 18% more gold-equivalent ounces, with higher production at Antamina and new contributions from Côté Gold and Casa Berardi.
Management guides on ounces rather than revenue. The company expects 510,000 to 570,000 ounces sold in 2026, and in August it said it was tracking toward the upper half of that range. It also holds $4.3 billion of available capital to buy new assets, and carries no debt. Based on that evidence, reaching growth at the scenario’s pace would likely take both more ounces and firm metal prices.
How Franco-Nevada’s Upside Shifts Under Other Assumptions
The table below shows the upside when one assumption changes on its own.
| If instead | Upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 76.9% |
| Revenue growth of 28.0% a year instead of 30.0% | 68.9% |
| Net margin of 22.4% in year three instead of 51.4% | -23.0% |
| 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 | 198.9% |
A net margin back at its earlier average is the one case that turns the gain into a loss, and today’s margin represents a high starting point. Franco-Nevada’s net margin over the twelve months to June 2026 was higher than at 38 of the 40 quarter-ends since 2016. Diluted shares rose 0.572% from June 2023 to June 2026. The scenario holds the share count at today’s level, so if shares keep rising, each individual share would get slightly less than the model shows.
Revenue growth could slow to 7.5% a year before three years of owning the stock return nothing, compared with 73.6% in the twelve months to June 2026. The net margin could fall to 29.0%, down from 63.8% today. The P/E could drop to 16.9, compared to today’s 29.9.
Franco-Nevada’s revenue growth, now led by precious metals, is the measure to watch when the company reports its third-quarter 2026 results, which management expects in November 2026.
Does This Mean You Should Act On FNV?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
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