Can Ondas Stock Double From Here?

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Bulls appear to be betting on the order book at Ondas (ONDS), which the company has to turn into sales for its stock to double. Doubling would leave the shares just below their January 8, 2026 high of $14.01. Ondas closed at $6.86 on October 28, so doubling means about $13.72. The stock has risen 100% or more within a year in four of the past seven years. Yet the company lost $144 million on operations in the second quarter of 2026, and its order book has not yet turned into profit. So how big has that order book become?

Ondas’s Orders Equal About Five Quarters Of Sales

Management said on its August 13 call that Ondas had about $757 million of orders still to deliver at June 30. That figure counts DZYNE and Cyberhawk, two companies Ondas finished buying in the third quarter. Based on the $140 million to $155 million of sales management guided for that quarter, which includes DZYNE, the order book would last about five quarters. On October 7, Ondas said it had secured over $270 million of new orders since June 30.

Ondas sells drones, counter drone systems and other autonomous systems to customers in defense, homeland security, public safety and critical infrastructure. The U.S. Air Force, Army and Navy are among those buyers. Rotron, one of the company’s recent purchases, took about $34.2 million of orders in the second quarter alone. That compares with the roughly $25 million of 2026 revenue Ondas expected from Rotron when it bought the company.

The growth is not only bought. If its current businesses had been owned in both periods, revenue would have grown about 85% from a year earlier, management said.

Why Are Ondas’s Operating Losses Growing?

Management said on the August 13 call that spending ahead of a broader rise in revenue is part of Ondas’s growing operating loss. A year earlier, in the second quarter of 2025, the operating loss was $9.25 million. Non-cash or acquisition-related items, such as stock compensation and the amortization of intangible assets, made up more than half of second-quarter operating expenses.

Ondas has the cash to carry those losses for now. The company held $1.38 billion of cash and short-term investments at June 30, against debt of $13.4 million. That June 30 cash equals about 40% of Ondas’s stock market value at the October 28 close. In the third quarter, Ondas paid about $325 million to complete the DZYNE and Cyberhawk purchases.

Management expects the second quarter to be the worst for its adjusted EBITDA losses, its own measure of profit before non-cash costs. The company also expects its operating businesses to reach profitability on that measure in the fourth quarter of 2026. For the third quarter, it expects revenue of $140 million to $155 million, well above the second quarter’s. Second-quarter revenue was about $83.8 million.

That answer has limits. Management expects the mix of programs and recently acquired excess capacity to put some pressure on gross margin in the second half. Adding DZYNE was also expected to lift operating expenses in the third quarter.

What Would Show Ondas’s Orders Are Running Late?

Deliveries slipping from one quarter to the next would be the first sign. On the August 13 call, management would not say in which quarters some of those deliveries will land. It also said its supply chains for new programs face challenges.

The risk to a holder is large. Ondas’s diluted share count rose 885.3% from the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2026, meaning each share owns a much smaller slice of the company. During the 2025 tariff shock, the stock fell 53%, against 19% for the S&P 500 ETF.

Ondas has a large order book, but it has yet to show it can deliver those orders at a profit. When Ondas reports in November 2026, third-quarter revenue against management’s guide is the number to watch.

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