Where Did Carnival Fall Behind Hilton?
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Shareholders in the hotels, resorts and cruise lines industry have experienced two very different sets of returns over the last five years. Stock in Hilton Worldwide (HLT) gained 142.7% in the five years to October 2026, while the cruise company Carnival Corporation (CCL) gained 29.8%. What put Hilton so far ahead: faster sales growth, bigger profits, or investors willing to pay more for each dollar of profit?
Who Has Beaten Carnival Over Five Years?
Over five years, Carnival’s stock beat 11 of 20 companies in its industry. Two of the companies with sales growth within 4 points of Carnival’s over the last three years posted higher returns, and Hilton’s stock finished 113.0 points ahead.
| Company | Sales growth, 3-year average | P/E | 1-year | 3-year | 5-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnival Corporation (CCL) | 11.5% | 12.2x | 2.3% | 156.2% | 29.8% |
| Hilton Worldwide (HLT) | 8.0% | 46.1x | 34.3% | 136.1% | 142.7% |
| Expedia (EXPE) | 8.6% | 16.3x | 23.2% | 200.1% | 70.1% |
Total return to 2026-10-28, including dividends. Companies in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines whose sales grew within 4 points of CCL’s. P/E: latest close over the last four quarters’ earnings per share.
The online travel company Expedia (EXPE) is the other, finishing 40.3 points ahead of Carnival. Over the last three years, Carnival’s stock gained more than Hilton’s, so Hilton built its lead in the two years before that.
Did Hilton Grow Faster Than Carnival?
No. Carnival’s sales grew an average of 11.5% a year over the last three years, compared to 8.0% for Hilton, which owns, manages and franchises hotels and resorts.
Between 2021 and 2026, Carnival’s sales rose 4,119% from a very low 2021 level, and its share count rose 20.7%. Hilton’s sales increased 162.1% over the same years, so its lead did not come from faster growth.
Where Did The Gap Come From?
Both businesses earn far more than they did in 2021. Hilton’s profit per share rose 6,067% between 2021 and 2026, and its operating margin widened 11.3 points. Carnival moved even further, swinging from an operating loss of more than ten times its sales to an operating margin of 16.0%. These two figures for Carnival cover four fiscal quarters, ending in August 2021 and August 2026.
The difference lies in what investors pay. Carnival recorded no profit in 2021, so taking sales instead shows that the price investors pay for each dollar of Carnival’s sales fell 97.2% between 2021 and 2026, compared to a 26.2% decline for Hilton. Carnival’s business recovered, and much of that drop comes from how small its 2021 sales were. Investors paid 43.3 times sales then, compared to 1.2 times in 2026.
Today, investors pay 46.1 times earnings for Hilton’s stock and 12.2 times for Carnival’s. Hilton’s own P/E was far higher in 2021, trading at 945.1 times when it earned $0.12 a share. In addition, Hilton’s share count fell 19.6% between 2021 and 2026 while Carnival’s rose, so each Hilton share holds a larger slice of the profit. Measured on sales, the gap comes from the multiple, and also from Hilton’s shrinking share count.
What To Watch In Carnival’s Next Report
During Carnival’s September 29, 2026 call, management slightly raised its forecast for fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share, as better yields, or revenue per unit of capacity, joined with lower costs and fuel use to more than make up for higher fuel prices. Carnival has also repurchased 45 million shares in the first six months of its buyback. Management expects the new Carnival Rewards loyalty program to hold back fourth-quarter yields, an accounting effect it expects to turn positive in 2028. It also expects the program to cut fiscal 2027 yields by a further 0.4 point.
Carnival’s earnings per share for fiscal Q4 2026 is the figure to watch when the company reports in December 2026. Management’s guidance for that quarter is adjusted earnings per share of $0.20, and $2.24 for the full year, up from $2.22.
How To Act On CCL?
Not necessarily on Carnival Corporation alone, if your goal is long-term wealth. Wealth is built by owning the companies that keep outperforming, the leaders of their industries, wherever they are. Here are two companies from Carnival Corporation’s own industry that have beaten it. Over the five years to October 2026, Hilton Worldwide stock rose 142.7% and Expedia stock rose 70%, while Carnival Corporation stock rose 29.8%.
Finding companies like these takes comparison across industries and sectors, and that is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does. It holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and, since its inception in September 2020, has returned more than 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000. See how we find the leaders.
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