Is Okta Stock Worth The Wait?
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Even after returning 110.3% in the past year, Okta (OKTA) stock trades more than a third below the high it set in February 2021. Many holders still measure the stock against that price, acting as if February 2021 showed where Okta belongs and every year since has been a detour. If you own the shares, the old high is the number you keep checking. There is also news: on October 30, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Okta will join the S&P 500 on November 4, and the stock fell 11.2% on November 2. So how big a climb still stands between Okta stock and its old high?
Okta Stock Needs A 57.8% Gain To Regain Its February 2021 High
Okta stock is down 36.6% from its high of February 2021, leaving it in need of a 57.8% gain to fully recover. Even if the climb took three years, it would require a 16.4% annual return. That 16.4% represents an average yearly pace, meaning the stock does not have to hit that exact mark in every one of those years.
Has Okta Stock Ever Gained 57.8% In Three Years?
Looking at every three-year stretch of Okta’s closing prices since April 2017, with a new period starting on each trading day, the stock gained 57.8% or more in 39.0% of those windows. So Okta stock has made this climb before, and not just once in a while. Yet most of those stretches fell short. The stock will need a better than usual three years to get back to its old high.
What Has Waiting Cost Okta Holders?
The wait has now lasted 5.7 years. Over that period, Okta stock is down 36.6% and the S&P 500 is up 91.7%, with both figures calculated before dividends. Waiting has cost Okta holders twice: they took the loss on the stock, and they sat out the rise in the wider market.
Is Okta The Same Business It Was Then?
No. Okta has grown into a much larger company since its February 2021 high.
| Okta | At the high, February 2021 | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $291.78 | $184.87 |
| Business figures: twelve months ended | 2021-01-31 | 2026-07-31 |
| Revenue, twelve months | $0.835 billion | $3.07 billion |
| Operating margin | -24.4% | 7.7% |
| Net income, twelve months | -$0.266 billion | $0.296 billion |
Share prices are split-adjusted closes on February 12, 2021 and November 2, 2026. Business figures are as reported, for the twelve months to the latest fiscal quarter in our data on or before each date.
Okta sells its workforce identity and customer identity platforms to businesses, alongside newer products such as Okta Identity Governance. The company’s revenue was $0.835 billion in the twelve months to January 2021, and it reached $3.07 billion in the twelve months to July 2026. Over those same years, the company turned an operating loss into an operating profit. Okta today sells far more and makes money, yet its stock costs less than it did at the high, so the price back then was the unusual part.
Okta stock now trades at 10.5 times its sales over the past twelve months, against 3.3 times for the S&P 500. The question for an Okta holder is whether that price fits the business Okta is today, not when the February 2021 high comes back.
Does This Mean You Should Act On OKTA?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
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