What Could Derail Bristol Myers Squibb Stock?
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Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) stock returned 42.9% over the past year, compared to 11.5% for the S&P 500. If you own the stock, you want to know what could take some of that gain back, and management has already pointed to pressure on its largest drug starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. So what did management warn about on its October 29 call?
Eliquis Is About To Lose Exclusive Rights In Europe
Management said an upcoming loss of exclusivity in Europe will hurt Eliquis sales in the fourth quarter of 2026. Continued U.S. growth will only partly make up for it. On the same call, management said it expects Eliquis revenue to step down by $1.5 billion to $2 billion in 2027.
The warning comes while the drug is still growing fast. Eliquis revenue reached $4.7 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 26%, and management expects Eliquis to grow 20% to 25% for the full year. The drug has also propped up the company’s older medicines for now. Management said their combined revenue rose 1% in the third quarter, with Eliquis more than offsetting the declines from generic entry across the rest of the group. For the full year, though, management expects revenue from the older medicines as a group to fall 3% to 5%.
Eliquis’s Size Next To The Stock’s Valuation
Eliquis brought in $14.4 billion in fiscal 2025, putting it ahead of the $10.0 billion from Opdivo, the company’s next-largest product. Its sales grew 8.3% that year, following 9.2% growth in fiscal 2024. The 2027 step down management expects equals roughly 3% to 4% of the $50.0 billion in revenue the company booked over the last twelve months.
Sales of the company’s growth medicines, a group that does not include Eliquis, are rising at the same time. Management said revenue for that growth portfolio rose 12% to $7.7 billion in the third quarter of 2026.
Buyers are also paying less for each dollar of Bristol Myers Squibb’s profit than for the market’s. The stock traded at 13.9 times earnings at the November 2 close, against 22.8 for the S&P 500, so the price appears to assume slower growth ahead. The shares closed 6.5% below their high of the past year, set on September 3, 2026.
How Worried Should Bristol Myers Squibb Holders Be?
The Eliquis threat looks real, and management has sized it for 2027. That step down represents a small slice of total sales, and the growth medicines are adding revenue in the meantime. Eliquis itself, though, made up 30% of company revenue in fiscal 2025. Management also says the company is well on track for $2 billion of efficiencies by the end of 2027. The company did lower its 2026 adjusted earnings guide to $6.35 to $6.55 per share, but only because of $0.58 per share of acquired research charges, net of licensing income.
If you hold the stock, size the position for broad market falls as well. During the 2023 surge in bond yields, Bristol Myers Squibb stock fell 23.0% while the S&P 500 fell 9.5%. In the 2025 tariff shock, both fell 19.0%.
The risk is worth taking only if Bristol Myers Squibb’s growth medicines keep adding more revenue than Eliquis gives up. When the company reports in February 2027, Eliquis revenue set beside the sales of the growth medicines is the figure to watch.
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