How Will Okta Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. The company has $14 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $83 Mil in operating profits and net income of $168 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Okta’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 12%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -9.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/26/2025 | 1.6% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
| 5/27/2025 | -16.2% | -17.5% | -21.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | 24.3% | 20.7% | 20.1% |
| 12/3/2024 | 5.4% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
| 8/28/2024 | -17.6% | -22.6% | -23.4% |
| 5/29/2024 | -7.8% | -8.1% | -2.9% |
| 2/28/2024 | 22.9% | 24.7% | 19.8% |
| 11/29/2023 | -2.5% | 0.1% | 25.8% |
| 8/30/2023 | 13.5% | 19.2% | 10.8% |
| 5/31/2023 | -17.8% | -20.8% | -23.7% |
| 3/1/2023 | 13.3% | 20.3% | 18.1% |
| 11/30/2022 | 26.5% | 15.6% | 28.2% |
| 8/31/2022 | -33.7% | -31.4% | -37.8% |
| 6/2/2022 | 5.0% | 1.3% | 9.5% |
| 3/2/2022 | -8.1% | -6.8% | -17.4% |
| 12/1/2021 | 11.7% | 21.2% | 13.2% |
| 9/1/2021 | 2.6% | 0.6% | -10.1% |
| 5/26/2021 | -9.8% | -14.5% | -0.2% |
| 3/3/2021 | -6.2% | -6.6% | -4.8% |
| 12/2/2020 | 5.3% | 0.9% | 8.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 11.7% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| Median Negative | -9.8% | -14.5% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 26.5% | 24.7% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -33.7% | -31.4% | -37.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 1.6% | 11.6% | -16.2% |
| 3Y History | 35.0% | 8.7% | -23.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Okta stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Okta. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| OKTA Earnings Dates | OKTA | MSFT |
| 8/26/2025 | 1.6% | -2.0% |
| 5/27/2025 | -16.2% | 16.8% |
| 8/28/2024 | -17.6% | -2.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | 22.9% | -0.0% |
| 5/26/2021 | -9.8% | -3.8% |
| CORRELATION | -34.2% |
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