How Will Nextpower Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Nextpower (NASDAQ:NXT) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. The company has $19 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.6 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $739 Mil in operating profits and net income of $592 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding NXT stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
Nextpower’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 12 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 3 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 75% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 12%, and median of the 3 negative returns = -9.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/27/2026 | 13.3% | 13.2% | 0.9% |
| 10/23/2025 | 8.7% | 9.7% | -3.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -9.3% | -13.7% | 4.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 11.9% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
| 1/28/2025 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 13.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 24.6% | 30.2% | 19.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | -10.4% | -14.2% | -13.2% |
| 5/14/2024 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 40.7% |
| 1/31/2024 | 24.8% | 22.4% | 26.8% |
| 10/25/2023 | -1.8% | -9.1% | 4.4% |
| 7/26/2023 | 12.4% | 6.2% | -2.5% |
| 5/10/2023 | 6.6% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 12.4% | 13.2% | 13.6% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -13.7% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 24.8% | 30.2% | 40.7% |
| Max Negative | -10.4% | -14.2% | -13.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 11.1% | -26.5% | -42.1% |
| 3Y History | 11.1% | -26.5% | -42.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Nextpower stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nextpower. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXT Earnings Dates | NXT | ARRY | SHLS | ENPH |
| 7/29/2025 | -9.3% | N/A* | N/A* | -21.2% |
| 5/14/2025 | 11.9% | N/A* | 38.5% | -9.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 24.6% | N/A* | N/A* | -10.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -10.4% | N/A* | N/A* | 5.8% |
| 5/14/2024 | 6.9% | 0.9% | N/A* | 3.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 6.6% | N/A* | N/A* | -26.8% |
| CORRELATION | � | � | -53.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after NXT
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