What Is Happening With NVIDIA Stock?
NVIDIA (NVDA)’s stock leapt 40%, fueled by a robust revenue surge and soaring investor confidence, despite a slight margin slip. Strong Q2 earnings and Blackwell demand sparked excitement, even as export curbs and AI fears stirred caution. Let’s unravel what truly moved the market.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 5182025 | 11142025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 135.4 | 190.2 | 40.5% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 130,497.0 | 165,218.0 | 26.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 55.8% | 52.4% | -6.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.5 | 53.5 | 17.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 24,489.0 | 24,366.0 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.5% |
So what is happening here? The stock surged 40%, driven by a 27% revenue boost and an 18% jump in P/E multiple, partly offset by a 6.1% dip in net margin. Let’s dive into the moves behind these shifts.
Here Is Why NVIDIA Stock Moved
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- Strong Q2 Earnings: NVIDIA beat Q2 FY26 revenue and EPS estimates, driven by strong data center growth.
- Blackwell Demand: High demand for Blackwell architecture and its ramp-up underscored NVIDIA’s AI leadership.
- US-China Export Curbs: Ongoing US-China AI chip export restrictions limited revenue and created geopolitical uncertainty.
- AI Bubble Concerns: Investor apprehension about an ‘AI bubble’ and high valuation contributed to stock volatility.
- Investor Sentiment: Peter Thiel’s fund exited NVDA, and Michael Burry made bearish bets, impacting sentiment.
Our Current Assesment Of NVDA Stock
Opinion: We currently find NVDA stock attractive but volatile. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell NVDA Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A good way to gauge risk with NVDA is to check how much it fell during major market sell-offs. It plunged about 85% in the Global Financial Crisis and nearly 68% in the Dot-Com crash. The 2018 correction and Inflation Shock both saw drops over 55%. Even during the Covid pandemic, which was shorter, NVDA still pulled back around 38%. Solid fundamentals matter, but during big market shocks, NVDA has shown it can take a hard hit.
NVDA stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.