Is NVIDIA Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock is down 10.7% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around AI competition hurting software demand and China sales uncertainty, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where NVIDIA stands today.
- Size: NVIDIA is a $4.2 Tril company with $187 Bil in revenue currently trading at $171.88.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 65.2% and operating margin of 58.8%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.0 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.38
- Valuation: NVIDIA stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 42.2 and P/EBIT multiple of 35.9
- Has returned (median) 53.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See NVDA Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Very Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Attractive but Volatile. For details, see Buy or Sell NVDA Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is NVDA stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose NVDA stock falls another 20-30% to $120 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- NVDA stock fell 66.4% from a high of $33.38 on 29 November 2021 to $11.23 on 14 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 May 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $207.04 on 29 October 2025 , and currently trades at $171.88
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -66.4% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 223 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- NVDA stock fell 37.6% from a high of $7.87 on 19 February 2020 to $4.91 on 16 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 May 2020
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 56 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- NVDA stock fell 56.1% from a high of $7.23 on 1 October 2018 to $3.18 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 February 2020
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -56.1% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 417 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- NVDA stock fell 85.1% from a high of $0.99 on 17 October 2007 to $0.15 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 May 2016
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -85.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2,731 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about NVDA stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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