Can Anthropic Still IPO If Nvidia Falls 30% More?

More on the Anthropic IPO: our Anthropic IPO storyline page collects our pieces on it.

If you opened your 401(k) app before work on Thursday, one of the biggest names in your index fund was falling again. Nvidia was down 10.3% premarket Thursday (8:52 am ET) at $155.90, 35% below its Oct 6 record close of $239.24. At 8:52 am Nvidia said Jensen Huang had resigned as CEO and from its board, effective immediately, with finance chief Colette Kress as interim CEO. Its board had opened an investigation on Nov 8, the day Huang acknowledged a relationship with an executive reportedly suspected of spying for China.

Nvidia reports earnings Nov 17, and Anthropic is expected to list on Nasdaq as ANT around Nov 19, at $70 to $78 a share, or $1.26 trillion to $1.41 trillion fully diluted. Another 30% fall would take Nvidia to about $109 and erase about $1.13 trillion, nearly nine-tenths of the low end of Anthropic’s range. On its own, Nvidia is about 6% of an S&P 500 index fund.

That 6% hides in many places. In a portfolio of a few million dollars, Nvidia, Amazon and Google, all Anthropic backers, show up across several funds. Do you know your total? A Trefis partner firm can add it up with you in a free 15-minute call.

How Would Nvidia’s Fall Reach Anthropic?

Through a chain with a weak last link:

• Nvidia falls another 30%, a $1.13 trillion loss.
• AI sentiment sours: the funds that would buy ANT hold Nvidia.
• The IPO price gives: a lower valuation, a smaller raise or a later date, not a cancelled deal. The filing’s range points to a $57.8 billion to $64.4 billion raise.
• Anthropic’s chips barely notice. Its filing says it runs Claude on four chip families: Amazon’s Trainium, Google’s TPUs and GPUs from Nvidia and AMD. Nvidia is also a backer: it is buying $10 billion of Anthropic’s $26.0 billion private placement at the IPO price.

The market already sees it. From the Nov 6 close to Thursday premarket, Nvidia is down 16.5%, while Broadcom, which supplies and leases AI accelerators to Anthropic, is up 20.6%, and Alphabet and Amazon are up 2.6% and 2.3%.

What If Nvidia Bounces Back Instead?

The record favors that. Since 2003 Nvidia has had 41 days when it fell 5% or more while the S&P 500 fell less than half a percent or rose. Of the 40 with three months of history, it was back above the prior close within three months in 32, with a median three-month gain of 10.2%. Huang’s future is now settled, one less unknown before the Nov 17 report. Then Anthropic lists into a calmer market.

What Happens To Big IPOs When The Market Turns?

They usually get done, and the buyers pay. Rivian listed on Nov 10, 2021, nine days before the Nasdaq 100’s closing peak; within six months it closed 77% below its first-day close. In our scorecard, Which Of 10 Famous IPOs Made Buyers Rich?, Facebook fell 54% in its first four months, and every listing with a record fell at least a third at some point, Google by 65% in 2007-08.

So, Can Anthropic Still IPO?

Most likely, yes; the price is the variable. For Nvidia itself, Anthropic IPO: Buy, Sell Or Hold Nvidia Stock? sizes the stake from its worst drop rather than selling on a headline. For ANT, a falling Nvidia argues for patience: no rush on day one, and a limit order at a price you pick now. Watch: Nvidia’s report on Nov 17, the CEO search and Anthropic’s final price, expected around Nov 18.

What Should You Ask Next?

• Will Nvidia Stock Go To $100?
• Who replaces Huang, and does it matter for Nvidia’s orders?
• How much Anthropic do you already own through Amazon and Google?

Would Your Plan Survive A 30% Nvidia Fall?

A $1.13 trillion drop would hit your Nvidia and your Anthropic plan in the same week. For families with seven figures invested, a stress test of how much rides on AI takes a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.