Management Set A Higher Bar For AMD Stock; Does The Chart Agree?
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On November 3, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) guided its fourth-quarter revenue well above its third-quarter result, and the stock has gained 14.3% since the close before that release, against 0.7% for the S&P 500. A bigger forecast and a rising stock look like a matched pair, but that period includes a 17.3% one-day drop on November 5, so the chart deserves a closer look before you take the forecast at face value. The stock has since won that drop back, helped by a 13.3% one-day rise on November 9. How firm is AMD’s share price trend underneath that gain?
AMD Stock Trades Barely Above Its 50-Day Average
The trend holds, but only just. AMD closed at $552.90 on November 11, 0.4% above its 50-day average, the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. That 50-day average, at $550.43, sits well above the 200-day average of $420.05, the average close over the last 200 trading days. So on both readings the trend is intact, with very little room between the price and the shorter average. That room is new: AMD rose 7.3% on November 11 and had closed below its 50-day average the session before.
On the first session after the release, AMD lagged the market: it rose 1.0% while the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, a move that priced the quarter’s results and the new guide together. Even so, the chart agrees with management for now, but narrowly.
AMD Expects Fourth-Quarter Sales Well Above Third-Quarter Results
Management expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%. Executives said that target would represent an increase of about 27% from the third quarter. AMD also recently surpassed its own expectations, reporting third-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion against the $13.0 billion management guided in August.
Management credited the expected jump mainly to its data center segment, forecasting growth of about 50% from the third quarter. Management said AMD began shipping its MI455X chips in volume during the third quarter. Looking ahead, management expects deployments of its Helios racks to increase substantially in the fourth quarter, with lead customers including Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI.
Not every business line points upward. Management expects revenue from its client and gaming business, which produces chips for PCs and game consoles, to fall more than 20% from the third quarter. The company noted that PC sales slowed late in the third quarter as higher memory and component costs weighed on demand.
What Could Change AMD Stock’s Chart From Here?
The fourth quarter is the final period in AMD’s fiscal 2026, and the company is expected to report its results in February 2027. That upcoming release is the next result that can either confirm the chart or undo it.
Beyond that quarter, management expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027, which remains a forecast and not a result. Executives cited supply as a limitation. During the November 3 call, management said that demand is higher than supply, and that AMD is working with its partners to add more.
A fourth-quarter performance that beats guidance, alongside a data center business that keeps growing faster than the rest of AMD, could push the stock higher. A quarter that falls short, or a close below the 50-day average, would break the agreement between management and the chart. When the results arrive, which is expected in February 2027, AMD’s fourth-quarter data center revenue against management’s forecast is the number to watch.
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