How Will NVIDIA Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. The company has $5.4 trillion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $216 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $130 billion in operating profits and net income of $120 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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NVIDIA’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 6.7%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.3%
Additional data for observed 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns post-earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/25/2026 | -5.5% | -6.4% | -12.4% |
| 11/19/2025 | -3.2% | -3.4% | -1.5% |
| 8/27/2025 | -0.8% | -5.5% | -1.9% |
| 5/28/2025 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 17.0% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.5% | -10.6% | -15.1% |
| 11/20/2024 | 0.5% | -7.2% | -7.7% |
| 8/28/2024 | -6.4% | -14.6% | -3.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | 9.3% | 16.4% | 24.4% |
| 2/21/2024 | 16.4% | 15.1% | 35.5% |
| 11/21/2023 | -2.5% | -3.6% | -1.9% |
| 8/23/2023 | 0.1% | 4.6% | -11.7% |
| 5/24/2023 | 24.4% | 30.2% | 33.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 14.0% | 9.4% | 31.0% |
| 11/16/2022 | -1.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% |
| 8/8/2022 | -6.3% | -1.5% | -29.1% |
| 5/25/2022 | 5.2% | 15.4% | -0.6% |
| 2/16/2022 | -7.6% | -10.4% | -0.2% |
| 11/17/2021 | 8.2% | 11.7% | -5.0% |
| 8/18/2021 | 4.0% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| 5/26/2021 | -1.3% | 8.1% | 21.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 11.7% | 22.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -6.4% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 30.2% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.6% | -29.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 26.3% | 40.2% | 3.2% |
| 3Y History | 61.8% | 68.3% | 28.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of NVIDIA stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before NVIDIA. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Earnings Dates | NVDA | AMD | INTC | QCOM |
| 2/25/2026 | -5.5% | -12.9% | N/A* | -2.1% |
| 11/19/2025 | -3.2% | -10.6% | -8.0% | -7.6% |
| 8/27/2025 | -0.8% | -4.1% | N/A* | 0.4% |
| 5/28/2025 | 3.2% | 14.4% | N/A* | -0.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.5% | -12.4% | 17.5% | -7.8% |
| 11/20/2024 | 0.5% | -17.2% | 11.6% | -10.8% |
| 8/28/2024 | -6.4% | 5.7% | -32.1% | -5.0% |
| 5/22/2024 | 9.3% | 4.5% | -10.1% | 23.7% |
| 2/21/2024 | 16.4% | -4.5% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
| 11/21/2023 | -2.5% | 21.0% | 34.6% | 14.5% |
| 8/23/2023 | 0.1% | -6.9% | -1.3% | -14.0% |
| 5/24/2023 | 24.4% | 20.4% | -2.5% | -8.7% |
| 2/22/2023 | 14.0% | 1.9% | -14.3% | -8.8% |
| 11/16/2022 | -1.5% | 21.9% | 13.9% | 7.3% |
| 8/8/2022 | -6.3% | 0.8% | -10.0% | -3.7% |
| 5/25/2022 | 5.2% | 1.7% | -9.2% | -2.9% |
| 2/16/2022 | -7.6% | 0.8% | -6.0% | -8.3% |
| 11/17/2021 | 8.2% | 23.1% | -9.7% | 32.5% |
| 8/18/2021 | 4.0% | 13.6% | -6.1% | -0.2% |
| CORRELATION | -4.0% | 10.1% | 6.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after NVDA
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