What’s Next For Novavax Stock After A Large 46% Fall In A Month?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) has seen a large 19% drop in just five trading sessions, while it is down 46% in a month (twenty-one trading days). While it has been nearly a year since Pfizer and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines hit the market, Novavax has yet to commercially deploy its shot, amid persistent production and quality issues. The company says that it is now close to finalizing its regulatory approvals. However, a recent media report stated that Novavax may need another year to resolve its manufacturing issues. [1] This didn’t sit well with the investors, and NVAX stock plunged 15% in a single trading session on Oct 20. Overall, the pessimism due to the delay in the commercial launch of its Covid-19 vaccine, has resulted in nearly a 60% fall from its 52-week high of around $332 NVAX stock made in Feb this year.

Now that NVAX stock has seen a fall of 46% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a decline in NVAX stock over the next month. It is not first time that NVAX stock has witnessed such large decline. In fact, NVAX stock has seen a twenty-one-day fall of 46% or more 46 times in last ten years. And, out of those 46 instances, only 15 of them resulted in NVAX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 15 out of 46, or only 33% chance of a rise in NVAX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Novavax Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that NVAX stock will decline further to even lower levels. Also, Novavax Stock Return summarizes NVAX stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter. That said, we think that much of the negative news is now priced into Novavax stock. Look at Novavax Hasn’t Delivered A Vaccine Yet, But The Stock May Be Worth A Look for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving -19% or lower over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 45% of the occasions.
  • After moving -19% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 46% of the occasions
  • After moving -46% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 33% of the occasions.

How does Novavax (NVAX) stock return in the recent past compare with peers and the S&P 500?

  • Five-Day Return: PFE highest at 4.5%; NVAX lowest at -19%
  • Ten-Day Return: MRNA highest at 7%; NVAX lowest at -19%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: S&P 500 highest at 1.9%; NVAX lowest at -46%

While NVAX stock may see lower levels, if it follows its historical pattern, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Abbott vs. Qorvo.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.
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  1. ‘They rushed the process’: Vaccine maker’s woes hamper global inoculation campaign, Sarah Owermohle, Erin Banco and Adam Cancryn, Oct 19, 2021, Politico []
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