How Hard Was It To Hold Natera Stock?
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On November 6, 2026, Natera (NTRA) stock closed 28.7% below the high it set on October 29. A $10,000 stake purchased in late October 2016 was worth about $345,000 by that same close, before dividends. That same money invested in the S&P 500 grew to about $34,600. Holding Natera looks easy in hindsight, but it was not. How many times do you think the stock fell 20% or more along the way?
How Often Did Natera Stock Fall?
Natera stock fell 20% or more nine times in those ten years. Six of those declines exceeded 30%.
| High | Low | Natera stock | S&P 500, same dates | Back above the old high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2016 | Apr 2017 | -41.7% | 5.6% | Sep 2017 |
| Oct 2017 | Apr 2018 | -38.6% | 2.6% | Jun 2018 |
| Aug 2018 | Jan 2019 | -60.8% | -10.1% | Aug 2019 |
| Nov 2019 | Mar 2020 | -57.3% | -23.1% | May 2020 |
| Feb 2021 | May 2021 | -30.8% | 5.6% | Sep 2021 |
| Sep 2021 | May 2022 | -77.7% | -11.2% | Sep 2024 |
| Feb 2025 | Apr 2025 | -25.3% | -17.8% | Sep 2025 |
| Jan 2026 | Mar 2026 | -28.2% | -8.0% | Jun 2026 |
| Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | -28.7% | -4.4% | Not as of Nov 2026 |
Falls of 20% or more from a closing high, Oct 2016 to Nov 2026. Split-adjusted closing prices, dividends excluded.
The deepest decline began in September 2021. The stock fell 77.7% by May 2022, while the S&P 500 lost 11.2% over the same dates. Investors then waited 28 months from that low, until September 2024, for Natera to close above its old high again.
What Was It Like Holding Natera Through A Fall?
Consider the decline that began in January 2026, the latest one to run its course. The stock slid 28.2% over 2.6 months before hitting a low in late March. Natera then took another 2.9 months, until late June, to close above its January high.
The eight declines before today’s all ended with the stock back above its previous high. But an investor sitting in the middle of one had no way to know that.
Was Something Wrong With Natera’s Business?
Natera sells DNA-based tests: Signatera for cancer patients, plus tests in women’s health and organ health. Sales kept climbing through the deepest fall. By the May 2022 low, Natera’s revenue over twelve months was 32.2% higher than at the September 2021 high. Losses grew worse, though, as the operating margin shifted from -61.0% to -81.3%. The business kept growing fast, but it was still far from making money.
The quarter Natera reported on November 5, 2026, during today’s fall, looked different. Revenue rose 34.1% from a year earlier, and the operating loss narrowed to 8.6% of sales from 16.5%. Nothing in those results shows a business in trouble. On the same call, management said the board had agreed that “the time is right” for a leadership transition from a position of strength. Chief executive Steven Chapman told the call he is stepping down from the role. A drop like this one is the risk of holding the stock.
What Selling Natera Stock Would Have Cost
Natera stock is up 1,004% since its May 2022 low. Investors who sold there missed all of it. Today the stock is six trading sessions into a new fall, and nobody knows yet where it ends.
Nobody can see where a market fall ends, either. Here’s what followed 21 sharp sell-offs since 2002.
The question was never whether you should have bought Natera, but whether you could have held it. Those nine falls were the price of the gain. The next time Natera stock falls hard, check whether its revenue is falling too. Revenue did not drop in the deepest fall, and the company’s next report is expected in February 2027.
Beyond NTRA: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on NTRA, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
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