Nutrien vs CF Industries: Which Stock Could Rally?
Nutrien surged 11% during the past Week. You may be tempted to buy more, or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer CF Industries gives you more. CF Industries (CF) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Nutrien (NTR) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in CF
- CF’s quarterly revenue growth was 21.1%, vs. NTR’s 12.3%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 12.6%, ahead of NTR’s 0.3%.
- CF leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 31.1% and 3-year average of 33.2%.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. If you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ). HQ has outperformed its benchmark — a combination of S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap index — and achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Risk management is key — consider what the long-term portfolio performance could be if you blended 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with HQ’s performance metrics.
NTR provides crop inputs and services, including potash, nitrogen, phosphate, sulfate products, financial solutions, crop nutrients, protection products, seeds, and merchandise distribution. CF manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and industrial uses, including ammonia, urea, and related products worldwide.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| NTR | CF | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 8.1 | 6.4 | CF |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 12.3% | 21.1% | CF |
| Last 12 Months | 0.3% | 12.6% | CF |
| Last 3 Year Average | -10.6% | -13.5% | NTR |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 13.4% | 31.1% | CF |
| Last 3 Year Average | 13.7% | 33.2% | CF |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | -12.4% | -12.9% | NTR |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: NTR Revenue Comparison | CF Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: NTR Operating Income Comparison | CF Operating Income Comparison
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell CF Stock to see if CF Industries’s edge holds up under the hood or if Nutrien still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell NTR Stock).
Historical Market Performance
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| NTR Return | 6% | 62% | -1% | -20% | -16% | 37% | 55% | ||
| CF Return | -16% | 87% | 22% | -5% | 10% | -0% | 102% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| NTR Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 42% | 33% | 42% | 60% | 50% | ||
| CF Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 60% | 57% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | 64% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| NTR Max Drawdown | -48% | 0% | -9% | -27% | -18% | 0% | -17% | ||
| CF Max Drawdown | -55% | -0% | -9% | -29% | -12% | -19% | -21% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/11/2025 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read CF Dip Buyer Analyses and NTR Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.
Whatever your view on either of these stocks, investing in one or two stocks remains a risky proposition. Instead, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.