How Will Nutanix Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Nutanix (NASDAQ:NTNX) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. The company has $15 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $173 Mil in operating profits and net income of $188 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Nutanix’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 9.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -7.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | -5.1% | -1.3% | 10.8% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.8% | -2.2% | -4.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 10.4% | 11.2% | 3.8% |
| 11/26/2024 | -7.8% | -5.4% | -13.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | 20.3% | 20.2% | 14.0% |
| 5/29/2024 | -23.1% | -27.2% | -22.4% |
| 2/28/2024 | 7.0% | 9.3% | 4.5% |
| 11/29/2023 | 3.7% | 7.7% | 14.7% |
| 8/31/2023 | 12.2% | 16.3% | 11.8% |
| 5/24/2023 | 16.8% | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| 3/6/2023 | -7.9% | -15.9% | -11.2% |
| 11/30/2022 | 8.1% | 6.7% | -7.8% |
| 8/31/2022 | 29.1% | 32.8% | 20.4% |
| 5/25/2022 | -23.0% | -22.5% | -29.5% |
| 3/2/2022 | -4.2% | -11.9% | -1.6% |
| 11/23/2021 | 8.0% | -1.7% | -0.4% |
| 9/1/2021 | 9.3% | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| 5/26/2021 | 0.9% | 5.1% | 26.3% |
| 2/24/2021 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -18.3% |
| 11/23/2020 | -0.9% | -2.4% | 16.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.8% | -8.7% | -11.2% |
| Max Positive | 29.1% | 32.8% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.1% | -27.2% | -29.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 31.0% | -18.3% | -32.3% |
| 3Y History | 21.5% | -46.2% | -50.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Nutanix stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nutanix. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NTNX Earnings Dates | NTNX | CSCO | SNCR |
| 8/27/2025 | -5.1% | -2.8% | -19.2% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.8% | 3.3% | N/A* |
| 2/26/2025 | 10.4% | 2.5% | N/A* |
| 11/26/2024 | -7.8% | 0.7% | -15.0% |
| 8/28/2024 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 35.3% |
| 5/29/2024 | -23.1% | -7.2% | 29.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | 7.0% | -4.4% | 5.0% |
| 11/29/2023 | 3.7% | -9.8% | 28.0% |
| 8/31/2023 | 12.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% |
| 5/24/2023 | 16.8% | 1.6% | N/A* |
| 3/6/2023 | -7.9% | 2.0% | N/A* |
| 11/30/2022 | 8.1% | 12.0% | -16.2% |
| 8/31/2022 | 29.1% | -4.2% | -1.8% |
| 5/25/2022 | -23.0% | -9.0% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2022 | -4.2% | 3.5% | N/A* |
| 11/23/2021 | 8.0% | -2.6% | 4.7% |
| 9/1/2021 | 9.3% | 7.1% | -11.5% |
| 5/26/2021 | 0.9% | 0.8% | N/A* |
| 2/24/2021 | -9.2% | -5.7% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 53.1% | -21.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after NTNX
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