Nutanix (NTNX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $52.58 | Market Cap: $14.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Nutanix (NTNX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $52.58Market Cap: $14.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.5% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | Key risksNTNX key risks include [1] competitive uncertainty stemming from Broadcom's acquisition of VMware, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Key risksNTNX key risks include [1] competitive uncertainty stemming from Broadcom's acquisition of VMware, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NTNX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Nutanix (NTNX) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025, during which the stock moved by -22.2%:
1. Lowered Revenue Guidance for Q2 and Full Fiscal Year 2026
Nutanix significantly lowered its revenue outlook for the second quarter and the entire fiscal year 2026, which disappointed investors. Specifically, the company forecasted Q2 revenue between $705 million and $715 million, considerably below analyst expectations of $748.9 million. For the full fiscal year 2026, the revenue guidance was reduced to a range of $2.82 billion to $2.86 billion, down from previous projections of $2.9 billion to $2.94 billion and falling short of the $2.92 billion consensus.
2. Q1 FY2026 Revenue Miss
While Nutanix's earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reported on November 25, 2025, met analyst estimates at $0.41, the company's revenue of $670.6 million slightly missed the consensus analyst estimates, which ranged from approximately $676.85 million to $690.3 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NTNX Return | 2% | -0% | -18% | 83% | 28% | -17% | 62% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 49% | -17% | 55% | 45% | 23% | 315% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NTNX Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 72% | 40% | 70% | 65% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NTNX Max Drawdown | -60% | -20% | -57% | -10% | -6% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -3% | -33% | -6% | -6% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DELL, AVGO, HPE, MSFT, CSCO. See NTNX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NTNX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 219.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 535 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 199.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 455 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,661 days | 120 days |
Compare to CSCO, NTAP, SNCR, AGPU, AIXC
In The Past
Nutanix's stock fell -68.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -68.7% loss requires a 219.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Nutanix Earnings Notes | |||
| Is 29.7% Fall In Nutanix (NTNX) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Is 20.4% Fall In Nutanix (NTNX) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Is Affirm a Better Buy Than Nutanix? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Would You Still Hold Nutanix Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| How Does Nutanix Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Better Bet Than NTNX Stock: Pay Less Than Nutanix To Get More From ACAD | |||
| NTNX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Nutanix Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 48.8% in 2025 and 70.6% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Nutanix (NTNX) worth $18 Bil (up $1.7 Bil), more valuable than KeyCorp | Notification | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Nutanix Stock To $33? | December 13th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Nutanix Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | November 22nd, 2025 | ||
| 20% Drop in Nutanix Stock – Buy Opportunity? | November 22nd, 2025 | ||
| Better Value & Growth: NTNX Leads Twilio Stock | November 20th, 2025 | ||
| Nutanix vs Affirm: Which Stock Could Rally? | November 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NTNX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nutanix
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 197.5 |
| Rev LTM | 60,792 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,958 |
| FCF LTM | 8,591 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,330 |
| CFO LTM | 10,420 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,105 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 197.5 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | 25.2 |
| P/E | 49.2 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/25/2025 | -17.7% | -19.8% | |
| 8/27/2025 | -5.1% | -1.3% | 10.8% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.8% | -2.2% | -4.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 10.4% | 11.2% | 3.8% |
| 11/26/2024 | -7.8% | -5.4% | -13.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | 20.3% | 20.2% | 14.0% |
| 5/29/2024 | -23.1% | -27.2% | -22.4% |
| 2/28/2024 | 7.0% | 9.3% | 4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 9.9% | 16.3% | 11.3% |
| Median Negative | -8.1% | -11.9% | -13.1% |
| Max Positive | 29.2% | 32.8% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -28.6% | -30.1% | -46.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12042025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9242025 | 10-K 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6032025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3062025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9192024 | 10-K 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6102024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3072024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9212023 | 10-K 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9212022 | 10-K 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |