MRNA Stock Surges 24% With A 5-day Winning Spree On FDA Vaccine Review
Moderna (MRNA) – a developer of mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines – hit a 5-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to 24%. The company’s market cap has surged by about $3.8 Bil over the last 5 days and currently stands at $19 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 69.1% compared to 0.9% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] FDA Reversal on Flu Vaccine Review
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- FDA accepted amended application for mRNA-1010 flu vaccine
- PDUFA goal date set for August 5, 2026
- Impact: Significant stock price increase, Positive shift in investor sentiment
[2] Q4 Earnings and Revenue Beat
- Reported EPS of -$2.11 vs. -$2.79 estimate
- Revenue of $678M vs. $611.14M estimate
- Impact: Narrower-than-expected quarterly loss, Revenue surpassed analyst consensus
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are several things to fear in MRNA stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Very Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell MRNA).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for MRNA stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MRNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 24.3% | 1.1% |
| 1M (21D) | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 3M (63D) | 100.1% | 4.4% |
| YTD 2026 | 69.1% | 0.9% |
| 2025 | -29.1% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -58.2% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -44.6% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has MRNA behaved after prior drops? See MRNA Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 64 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 32 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 36 | 13 |
| 4D | 10 | 15 |
| 5D | 13 | 0 |
| 6D | 4 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 2 |
| Total >=3 D | 64 | 32 |
Key Financials for Moderna (MRNA)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $6.8 Bil | $3.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-4.2 Bil | $-3.9 Bil |
| Net Income | $-4.7 Bil | $-3.6 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $137.0 Mil | $1.0 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-907.0 Mil | $-260.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-825.0 Mil | $-200.0 Mil |
While MRNA stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.