What’s Next For Norfolk Southern Stock After A 3% Fall Last Week?

NSC: Norfolk Southern logo
Norfolk Southern

The stock price of Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) reached its all-time high of around $295 in May before a recent sell-off resulting in NSC stock falling to $250 levels currently. NSC stock has declined over 3% in the last five trading sessions. The stock prices of other railroad companies, including CSX and UNP, also saw losses of over 2% in the last week. The railroad companies have seen a rebound in demand over the recent quarters but the rise of Covid-19 cases over the last couple of months may impact the overall earnings growth in Q3. But will NSC stock continue its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a recovery in the stock imminent?

According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for NSC stock average 2% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 3% drop over the previous week (five trading days). But how would the returns fare if you are interested in holding NSC stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Norfolk Southern stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

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IF NSC stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days NSC stock moves an average of 2%, with a reasonable 64% probability of a positive return over this period.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Norfolk Southern Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for Norfolk Southern stock higher after a drop?

Answer: Consider two situations,

Case 1: Norfolk Southern stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Norfolk Southern stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Norfolk Southern stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

NSC stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 2.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Norfolk Southern stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer: If you buy and hold Norfolk Southern stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For NSC stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Norfolk Southern after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although NSC stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Norfolk Southern stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

While NSC stock may rebound, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Kansas City Southern vs Canadian Pacific Railway.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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