Can Cloudflare Stock Reach $300?
This September, 2025, Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) marked its 6th anniversary as a public company. What’s amazing – Cloudflare’s stock is trading at about $220, more than 14x its IPO price of $15 back in 2019. Not bad. What’s even better? During this period, cash from operations have scaled nearly as fast – from -$39 million in 2019 to nearly $450 million over the last twelve months – that’s more than a 13x jump. And there’s something more.
Last twelve months cash flow from operations growth was 26%.
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Why are cash flows increasing so fast, you might ask?
Cloudflare’s cash flows have surged in recent years, driven by a combination of strong revenue growth, improving margins, and operating leverage. The company has been consistently delivering 25–30%+ annual revenue growth, while scaling its cost base more efficiently, leading to higher operating and free cash flow margins. Expansion into higher-margin businesses such as AI, edge computing, and developer platforms is boosting profitability further, while its subscription-based cybersecurity and network services provide predictable recurring revenue. With rising enterprise adoption, strong demand for cybersecurity, and the stickiness of its platform, Cloudflare has been able to translate top-line momentum into significantly higher operating cash flows, which have more than doubled in the past two years.
Cloudflare’s cash flows have the potential to increase a lot over the next few years as strong revenue growth combines with rising profitability. Today, the company generates about $1.8 billion in revenue and roughly $450 million in net cash flow. If Cloudflare sustains its 25% annual revenue growth — a pace similar to CrowdStrike in recent years — revenues could climb to nearly $5 billion by 2030. At the same time, operating leverage from its global network should allow free cash flow margins to expand toward 40%, in line with SaaS peers like Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS). That would put free cash flow in the $2 billion range, nearly 4x higher than today.
Using conservative peer multiples of 45–55x FCF, this implies a future valuation of $90–110 billion versus a current ~$73 billion market cap, supporting the case for the stock itself to move 50% from the current levels. The path is credible given Cloudflare’s recurring subscription base, growing demand for cybersecurity and edge services, and its leadership in AI-enabled infrastructure.
The biggest risk with Cloudflare stock is its premium valuation, which leaves little room for error — the shares trade well above peers on both sales and cash flow multiples, so any slowdown in growth or margin expansion could trigger a sharp re-rating. Competition is another concern, with hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, and Google pushing into edge and security services, alongside pure-play rivals such as Zscaler and CrowdStrike.
Execution risk also remains high as Cloudflare invests heavily in AI and new platforms that are not yet proven profit drivers. Finally, its business is sensitive to enterprise IT budgets; a downturn in spending or slower adoption of its newer products could weigh on cash flow growth, undermining the bullish case for a 50% move in the stock.
Investors should be prepared for significant volatility and the potential for substantial losses if market conditions deteriorate or if the company fails to execute on its ambitious growth plans. While the 2x upside potential is mathematically sound based on projected revenues, it requires flawless execution in a rapidly evolving and competitive landscape. Now, we apply a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
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