Is Newmont Stock Increasing Your Market Risk?
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If you hold Newmont (NEM), or are about to, you likely saw the gold miner rise 13.4% in the five sessions to November 6, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell 2.7%. If the rest of your money follows the broader market, how Newmont moves on ordinary market days dictates whether the stock adds to your existing risk or offsets it. So when the market moves, does Newmont add to the swing in your money or soften it?
Newmont Moves Further Than The Market On Average Days
For the most part, the stock adds to the swing. Over the year to November 6, 2026, Newmont fell 1.1% on the average day the S&P 500 declined, compared with a 0.632% drop for the index. For a $10,000 holding, that meant a loss of about $107. On the average up day, the stock rose 1.4%, against 0.644% for the index, adding about $136 to the same holding.
Newmont’s volatility, or how widely its price swings over a year, was 48.6% over that past year, against 13.6% for the index. For every 1% the index moved, Newmont shifted about 1.68% on average in the same direction.
During March 2026, the index’s worst month of that year, the S&P 500 fell 5.1% and a $10,000 Newmont holding lost about $1,673. Held alongside a market fund, Newmont adds to the risk you already carry rather than steadying it. That reading rests on the past year: over five years, its daily moves matched the index’s on a score of only 0.27.
Will Newmont Keep Swinging Like This?
Because its profit follows the gold price, Newmont’s business points to more swings like the past year’s. The company beat profit estimates in fiscal Q3 2026 on higher gold prices, realizing an average of $4,320 per ounce.
Management expects unit costs to trend higher in 2027 on macroeconomic headwinds and lower co-product credits. That drop in credits stems mainly from lower silver output at Penasquito, which is seen roughly 30% lower than in 2026.
Newmont is also making a large bet that is still unproven. Management estimates development capital for the Red Chris block cave project at between $4.2 billion and $4.8 billion. Commercial production is targeted for 2033, and the project remains subject to board approval.
Newmont’s price swings follow the index only loosely, however. Over the past year, the company’s daily moves matched the index’s on a score of 0.47, where 1 means the two move in lockstep. When the S&P 500 fell 4.4% on November 5, 2026, the index’s worst day of that year, Newmont rose 1.4%.
Has Newmont Paid You For Swinging Harder?
Partly. Over the five years since October 29, 2021, Newmont returned 20.7% a year including dividends, compared with 11.4% for the S&P 500. Annual volatility over those five years was 39.4% for the stock, against 17.1% for the index.
Dividing the return by the volatility shows the return each unit of swing has earned: 0.525 for Newmont, against 0.667 for the index. Newmont has paid you a higher return, but less for each unit of swing than the market did.
If the past year is a guide, Newmont is likely to rise more than the index on the market’s average up day and fall more on its average down day, though not on every day. If you already own a gold mining fund, adding Newmont puts more money on the same bet, the gold price, rather than spreading your risk. Newmont’s cost per ounce is the measure to watch at its next report.
Who Is Watching Your Portfolio’s Risk When You’re Not?
Newmont is one risk to keep an eye on, and most portfolios hold many. Watching all of them, day after day, is hard to do alone. Our partner advisory firm builds portfolios on Trefis research, starting with the HQ Portfolio, whose edge has been limiting losses when markets fall. Talk it through on a free 30-minute call, and bring your hardest questions.
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