What Could Lift Newmont Stock?
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Newmont (NEM) stock returned 46.2% over the twelve months to October 28, 2026, beating the S&P 500’s 14.0% gain. If you own the gold miner after that run, or watched it from the sidelines, you want to know how much upside remains. So what would have to keep rising at Newmont for its shares to climb further over the next three years?
All Of Newmont’s Upside Comes From Higher Sales
Newmont mines gold, along with copper and silver, from the same operations. The company produced about 1.3 million ounces of gold in fiscal Q3 2026 and sold it at an average of $4,320 an ounce, management said on the October 22 call. Nevada Gold Mines and Penasquito were its two largest mines by revenue in fiscal 2025.
In a three-year scenario built by Trefis on the company’s own figures, Newmont stock would be worth about 20.3% more, or 6.4% a year, excluding dividends. Today’s figures appear below alongside the scenario’s projections.
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.6 billion | $44.8 billion |
| Net margin | 34.7% | 27.7% |
| Earnings | $9.24 billion | $12.4 billion |
| P/E | 12.9 | 11.6 |
| Share price | $113.92 | $137.06 |
All of that gain comes from higher revenue, which grows 19% a year in the scenario. Part of it is given back because the scenario also assumes a lower net margin and a lower P/E.
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What Newmont Expects From Its Mines In 2027
For 2027, management expects total production to rise by a low to mid-single-digit percentage from 2026, helped by higher grades at Lihir and Boddington and more ounces from Tanami. Newmont gave guidance for production and costs in its October 22 release, but not for revenue. At that production pace, extra ounces would account for only part of the scenario’s sales growth, so the rest would have to come from the prices Newmont gets for its metals.
Sales are already growing more slowly than 19% a year. Revenue rose 15.2% in fiscal Q3 2026 from a year earlier, and growth was about the same in fiscal Q2. Management also expects unit costs to trend higher in 2027, partly because silver output at Penasquito should be roughly 30% lower than in 2026.
What Happens To Newmont’s Upside If Assumptions Change?
Newmont’s net margin today is far above its 11.4% average at the twelve quarter-ends before the latest, a stretch that included twelve-month losses through September 2024. The scenario’s year-three margin combines 70% of today’s margin and 30% of that average, which is why it is lower than today’s.
In the scenario, sales grow at four-fifths of Newmont’s latest twelve-month pace. This rate is cut back because growth has slowed: that recent pace fell below its average of the two years before. The P/E is lowered to match the slower growth. The share count is held at today’s level, though it rose 32.0% from fiscal Q3 2023 to fiscal Q3 2026, so any further rise would leave each share with less than the scenario shows. That rise came in a single year: the average count was 796 million in the year to September 2023.The count has fallen since 2024, though, dropping from an average of 1,149 million over the twelve months to September 2024 to 1,051 million over the latest twelve months. Management said Newmont has repurchased more than 115 million shares since February 2024.
The table below changes one assumption at a time, keeping the others as they appear in the scenario.
| If instead | Upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 20.3% |
| Revenue growth of 17.0% a year instead of 19.0% | 14.3% |
| Net margin of 11.4% in year three instead of 27.7% | -50.5% |
| P/E of 12.9 in year three instead of 11.6 | 34.5% |
| 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 | 70.3% |
The upside is larger with today’s P/E or with five years of growth, and the gain becomes a loss with a margin back at its earlier average.
On these assumptions, the shares would be worth no more than today in three years if revenue grew 11.9% a year, against 23.7% over the latest twelve months. The same is true if the net margin fell to 23.0% from 34.7% today, or if the P/E fell to 9.6 from 12.9 today.
Revenue growth from a year earlier is the measure to watch when Newmont reports fiscal Q4 2026 results, expected in February 2027.
How To Act On NEM?
Now you know Newmont better. Our purpose is to inform you so you can decide for yourself, and acting on one stock, in either direction, carries its own risk.
If you would rather own a portfolio built to spread that risk, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds 30 quality companies in equal weight. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.
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