How Will Nasdaq Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) is likely to publish its earnings on Thursday, July 24, 2025, reporting on a quarter that saw the Nasdaq 100 index and U.S. stocks surge to new all-time highs. Revenues are projected to grow by about 9% year-over-year to $1.26 billion, while earnings are projected to come in at about $0.79 per share, up about $0.10 versus a year ago.  Several trends have been driving the company’s performance in recent quarters, including stronger demand for tech and data solutions, a higher mix of recurring and software-based sales that have been driven by a shift to subscription models. Moreover, the exchange has also been witnessing strong interest in Nasdaq-linked index products and this could drive up trading volume and fee income.

The company has $51 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.8 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $2.1 billion in operating profits and net income of $1.3 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader. There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Nasdaq’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
• However, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Nasdaq stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nasdaq. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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