How Will Micron Technology Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 17, 2025. The company has $266 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $37 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $9.8 Bil in operating profits and net income of $8.5 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Micron Technology’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 37% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 8.6%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -3.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/23/2025 | -2.8% | 0.5% | 19.3% |
| 6/25/2025 | -1.0% | -4.3% | -12.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -8.0% | -11.5% | -35.1% |
| 12/18/2024 | -16.2% | -13.6% | 5.3% |
| 9/25/2024 | 14.7% | 4.3% | 11.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -7.1% | -3.9% | -23.1% |
| 3/20/2024 | 14.1% | 23.9% | 11.0% |
| 12/20/2023 | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% |
| 9/27/2023 | -4.4% | -0.1% | -5.2% |
| 6/28/2023 | -4.1% | -8.7% | 6.4% |
| 3/28/2023 | 7.2% | -3.4% | 4.6% |
| 12/21/2022 | -3.4% | -1.1% | 19.9% |
| 9/29/2022 | 0.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% |
| 6/30/2022 | -2.9% | 7.2% | 13.4% |
| 3/29/2022 | -3.5% | -9.1% | -14.3% |
| 12/20/2021 | 10.5% | 13.3% | 3.8% |
| 6/30/2021 | -5.7% | -9.3% | -8.7% |
| 3/31/2021 | 4.8% | 8.0% | -2.4% |
| 1/7/2021 | -2.1% | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -6.5% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 23.9% | 19.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -13.6% | -35.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -0.7% | -15.5% | -4.7% |
| 3Y History | -12.7% | -10.8% | 6.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Micron Technology stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Micron Technology. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| MU Earnings Dates | MU | ADI |
| 3/20/2025 | -8.0% | -14.4% |
| 12/18/2024 | -16.2% | -4.7% |
| 3/20/2024 | 14.1% | 0.8% |
| 12/20/2023 | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| 12/21/2022 | -3.4% | -0.2% |
| 12/20/2021 | 10.5% | -7.4% |
| CORRELATION | -24.6% |
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