Despite Flat Revenues, Micron Technology Stock Has Doubled Since 2018: Here’s Why

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MU: Micron Technology logo
MU
Micron Technology

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) stock price rose more than 2x from around $32 in 2018 end to almost $70 currently, primarily due to favorable changes in its P/S multiple. This comes as a surprise as the company has witnessed only a marginal rise in revenues over this period, and a slight drop in the outstanding share count.

In our interactive dashboard, Why Micron Technology Stock Moved: MU Stock Has Gained 118% Since 2018, we break down the factors behind this move.

(A) MU’s Total Revenue has grown just 2.6% from $30.4 billion in 2018 to $31.2 billion on an LTM basis

  • MU’s total revenue initially dropped from $30.4 billion in FY ’18 (MU’s fiscal year ends in August) to $21.4 billion in FY ’20, primarily due to a combination of the semiconductor supply glut and the pandemic affecting demand.
  • Revenues then surged to $27.7 billion in FY ’21, and currently stand higher at $31.2 billion on an LTM basis.
  • The DRAM semiconductor segment makes up the bulk of Micron’s revenues, with $20 billion of the company’s sales coming from DRAM products as of FY ’21, making up over 70% of total revenue.
  • For details about MU revenues and comparison to peers, see Micron Technology (MU) Revenue Comparison
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(B) Revenue per share (RPS) increased 5.5% from $26.38 in 2018 to $27.82 currently

  • MU revenue rose from $30.4 billion in 2018 to $31.2 billion currently, while the outstanding share count decreased from 1.2 billion in 2018 to 1.1 billion currently.
  • Due to this, RPS has risen around 5.5% from $26.38 in FY ’18 to $27.82 currently.

(C) Price-To-Sales (P/S) multiple for MU rose strongly from 1.2x in 2018 to 3.9x by 2020 end, but has pulled back to 2.5x currently, still more than 2x higher than its 2018 level

  • Despite Micron’s inconsistent performance since 2018-end, its P/S multiple increased from 1.2x in 2018 to almost 4x in 2020.
  • However, with current supply chain concerns and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the P/S multiple has pulled back and currently stands at around 2.5x.
  • For additional details about the company stock returns and comparison to peers, see Micron Technology (MU) Stock Return Comparison.

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Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 MU Return -10% -25% 220%
 S&P 500 Return -5% -10% 92%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -6% -14% 240%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/25/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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