ArcelorMittal Stock Jumped 100% in One Year – What’s Next?

When a steelmaker leads the market, investors sit up and take notice — and that’s exactly what ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) has done. Over the last year, MT’s stock has more than doubled in value, far outpacing broad markets and its raw-material peers. What was once a lumbering industrial name has transformed into one of the most talked-about turnaround stories in the materials sector. But this bullish run isn’t magic — it’s anchored in financial improvements, strategic shifts, and a changing industry landscape.

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Strong Performance on the Numbers

One of the clearest drivers of MT’s stock performance has been improving profitability and consistent shareholder returns. For the first nine months of 2025, ArcelorMittal reported net income of $3.0 billion, up sharply from $1.7 billion in the same period of 2024. Adjusted net income came in at $2.3 billion, supporting adjusted basic EPS of roughly $3.00, while reported basic EPS rose to about $3.90. Despite a softer pricing environment, the company continued returning capital, distributing around $0.8 billion through dividends and buybacks over the past year, while maintaining disciplined investment in growth and efficiency.

Revenues tell a more nuanced story. 9M 2025 sales totaled approximately $46.4 billion, slightly below the $47.7 billion recorded a year earlier, reflecting weaker steel prices and mixed shipment volumes. Yet operating income improved to about $3.3 billion, up from $2.8 billion in 9M 2024, highlighting stronger cost control and operational resilience. Mining performance also stood out, with iron-ore production rising to roughly 35.7 million tonnes from 29.8 million tonnes, helping to underpin earnings. Together, these trends explain why investors have continued to reward MT’s stock despite modest top-line pressure.

Operational and Strategic Tailwinds

Investors often pay not just for what’s already in the books, but for what’s coming. MT’s management has leaned into several key long-term strategic themes that resonate with markets:

• Decarbonization and product mix improvement: ArcelorMittal has been shifting toward higher-margin, lower-carbon products — an increasingly prized segment as steel buyers and regulators push for greener supply chains.
• Portfolio optimization: Research from independent analysts highlights MT’s focus on divesting underperforming assets, optimizing its global footprint, and capturing structural improvements in profitability. This includes reducing reliance on low-return operations and increasingly capturing market share where barriers to entry exist.
• Shareholder returns: Beyond buybacks and dividends, strong free cash flow has made Wall Street more comfortable with the equity story. Return of capital is a tangible benefit, especially in a cyclically sensitive industry.

Industry and Macro Drivers

Steel is cyclical, and MT’s performance has been linked to broader shifts in global steel demand. While China remains a dominant producer, demand outside China — particularly in Europe, the U.S., and emerging markets — showed resilience during 2025, lifting sentiment. Expectations that global steel consumption (excluding China) could grow 2.5 %–3.5 % in 2025 helped underpin buyer confidence.

Additionally, trade protections and policy support in Europe — such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms and tougher import quotas — have been touted as structural positives for local steel producers like ArcelorMittal.

Risks and Headwinds: The Other Side of the Story

No rally is without its risks. ArcelorMittal still operates in a highly competitive global market with persistent structural challenges:

• European cost pressures and legal entanglements: The company faces rising energy and compliance costs in Europe, and in early 2026 Italian authorities filed a multi-billion euro lawsuit alleging mismanagement of the Taranto steelworks — a development that could complicate operations and investor sentiment.
• Revenue volatility: While profitability has improved, revenues have been sliding from a peak of ~$79.8 billion in 2022 to $62.4 billion in 2024, demonstrating sensitivity to market cycles and price swings.
• Emerging market and asset sales: ArcelorMittal has sold or is reframing parts of its global footprint — for example, exiting operations in Bosnia and reconsidering some South African facilities — which can both streamline the business but also signal retreat from tougher markets.

So What’s Next for MT?

Looking ahead, the case for ArcelorMittal revolves around three pillars:

• Earnings and cash flow expansion: If EBITDA and net income continue to rebound as steel demand stabilizes, multiples could expand further.
• Policy and trade dynamics: Protective measures in key markets could help defend prices and margins, making European and North American operations more attractive.
• Execution on strategic investments: Projects aimed at increasing mining output, building lower-carbon steelmaking capacity, and delivering returns on growth capex will be critical.

In essence, while ArcelorMittal’s stock has doubled over the past year largely because investors are pricing in improved profitability, shareholder returns, and structural industry improvements, the future will depend on the company’s ability to steer through macro uncertainties, regulatory pressures, and cyclical demand shifts. For long-term holders, the story isn’t just in what MT has done, but in what it can deliver over the steel cycle ahead.

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