Is ArcelorMittal Stock Still A Strong Bet?

ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) has been on quite a run lately. After a stretch of underperformance, the world’s second-largest steelmaker has bounced back with improving earnings and a solid strategic focus. In Q1 2025, the company posted a better-than-expected EBITDA of $1.58 billion, riding on higher iron ore output (especially in Liberia) and stable steel shipments. That’s a big confidence booster, and investors have noticed — the stock is up 35% year-to-date. Buy Or Sell MT Stock?

So, what’s behind the turnaround? A few key drivers. First, global steel demand (excluding China) is expected to grow by 2.5–3.5% this year, and ArcelorMittal is well-positioned to ride that wave thanks to its exposure in fast-growing markets like India and infrastructure-focused regions like the U.S. It’s also investing smartly — expanding capacity, modernizing its facilities (like the electric arc furnace in Alabama), and ramping up high-grade iron ore exports. For investors looking for potential gains with less volatility, the High Quality portfolio has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500, delivering over 91% returns since inception.

Still, it’s not all smooth sailing. Steel prices are notoriously cyclical, and with global trade tensions simmering — especially between the U.S. and China — sentiment can shift fast. Plus, the green steel transition in Europe will require heavy investment and could pressure margins in the near term.

Bottom line? ArcelorMittal stock appears to have much of the near-term optimism already priced in. Trading at a modest forward P/S around 0.4x in the last twelve months, it still looks cheap on paper — but with rising expectations, limited earnings surprise potential, and macro risks (like tariffs and steel price volatility), further upside may be gradual unless new growth drivers emerge. In short, MT looks fairly valued for now, with gains priced in unless tailwinds strengthen. See our analysis on ArcelorMittal Valuation: Is MT Stock Expensive Or Cheap? for more information on what’s driving our valuation for ArcelorMittal. See our analysis of ArcelorMittal revenues for more details on the company’s key revenue streams and how they are expected to trend.

Investing in a single stock like MT can be risky. On the other hand, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index, less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates