Guidance Raise And Momentum – Motorola Solutions Stock Has Both
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Motorola Solutions (MSI) reported its third quarter and raised its fiscal 2026 outlook on November 4, 2026. The stock rose 4.0% the next day, while the S&P 500 fell 4.4%. So what exactly did Motorola Solutions raise, and does the chart back it?
Motorola Solutions’ Guidance Raise
Management raised its own forecast for fiscal 2026, mostly on earnings. The company now expects adjusted earnings per share, its own measure, of $17.94 to $17.99. That outlook is up from the $17.62 to $17.72 range given in its August 5 release. At the midpoint, that is a raise of 1.7%.
The sales forecast moved far less. Management now expects about $13.05 billion for the year, up from $12.975 billion. The company also lifted its outlook for cash from operations to $3.05 billion, from $3 billion.
Within the higher outlook, management now expects its Products and Systems Integration segment to grow 12% in fiscal 2026, up from 11% before. The forecast also includes about $45 million of sales from D-Fend, a drone-detection business the company has just bought.
What We See In Motorola Solutions’ Chart
The chart backs the raise. Motorola Solutions stock closed at $517.01 on November 5, marking its highest close in the past year. That close stood 10.7% above its 50-day average, the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. The 50-day average, at $467.07, was itself above the 200-day average. That longer metric, the same measure over 200 trading days, sat at $439.83.
Over the past year, the stock returned 32.7% including dividends, against 9.9% for the S&P 500, so the trend did not start with the raise. Since the release, though, the chart covers only one trading session. A trend is a record of what the price has done, not a forecast.
Is There Room Left To Run For Motorola Solutions?
Motorola Solutions has to grow a little faster in the fourth quarter than in the third just to meet its own raised outlook. Management expects fourth-quarter sales to grow about 13%, against the 12.2% the company reported for the third quarter. Businesses the company bought, mostly its tactical communications business Silvus, contributed $211 million of that third-quarter growth. That amounts to more than half of the quarter’s growth in sales.
Backlog, representing orders not yet turned into sales, ended the third quarter at a record $16.6 billion, up 14% from a year earlier. Management expects Silvus to grow about 30% in 2027. It also gave an early 2027 sales figure of about $14.25 billion and will give a formal outlook in February.
Costs may rise in 2027. Management said it would not be surprised if memory costs doubled in 2027, though it still expects operating margins to grow that year. The stock already trades at 41.1 times the past twelve months’ earnings, against 22.9 for the S&P 500. Both figures use reported earnings, while the company’s forecast uses its own adjusted measure.
So far, Motorola Solutions has both a higher forecast and a stock above its averages. A fourth quarter that grows as fast as management now expects, with the backlog and Silvus still growing into 2027, could push the stock higher. A quarter that falls short of the raised outlook, or a slide back below the two averages, would argue against further gains. Fourth-quarter sales growth, in the report expected in February 2027, is the number to watch.
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