How Much Could You Lose In Rigetti Computing Stock?
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Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) lost 32.5% over the month to November 5, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 5.7% over the same period, while peers IonQ and D-Wave Quantum fell even more than Rigetti. The stock ended that day at $9.85, marking its lowest close of the past year. If the wider market turns lower from here, how much more could Rigetti shareholders lose? A repeat of the stock’s average sell-off fall of 52.2% would take it from $9.85 to about $4.71.
How Far Has Rigetti Stock Fallen In Past Sell-Offs?
Rigetti stock has dropped much further than the S&P 500 during every market sell-off since the company began trading in March 2022. For 2022, the comparison dates start on March 2, its first trading day, although the broader sell-off began in early January. The stock suffered its largest decline during the 2022 inflation and Fed tightening shock, losing 83% compared with a 17.6% drop for the S&P 500. A portion of that decline occurred on September 6, 2022, when the shares closed at least 35% below their previous close. Across all five sell-offs, Rigetti stock fell 52.2% on average, while the S&P 500 fell 12.1%. The other four periods were the 2023 SVB banking crisis, the 2023 five percent yield shock, the 2024 yen unwind and the 2025 US tariff shock.
The stock eventually regained its pre-fall high after all five periods, though not always swiftly. The median wait from the low was 2.5 months, yet two recoveries took more than a year. The longest recovery followed the 2022 fall, requiring 26.1 months until December 2024.
Rigetti Sells More, At Thinner Margins
Rigetti posted revenue of $13.4 million for the twelve months to June 2026, up 68.5% from a year earlier. That figure remains below the $14.4 million recorded over the twelve months to June 2023. Second-quarter revenue reached $5.14 million, up from $1.8 million a year earlier. Management said the second-quarter increase came from sales of its Novera quantum computing systems.
Gross margin has moved the other way. Over twelve-month periods, it fell each year, sliding to 34.6% in the latest period from 81.3% three years earlier. The second quarter of 2026 offered a better result, arriving at 42.6% against 31.4% a year before.
Rigetti held $394 million in cash and short-term investments at the end of June 2026. Counting all of its available-for-sale investments, management put the total at about $541.3 million and said the company operates with no debt. The company recorded a negative $87.6 million in free cash flow over the twelve months to June 2026.
Rigetti May Issue New Shares While Costs Climb
Rigetti is set to issue equity to the U.S. Department of Commerce following a multi-year funding award. In May, the department selected the company for up to $100 million in potential funding over three years, though management noted on its August 6 earnings call that terms were still being finalized. On September 8, Rigetti formalized the definitive agreement for the full $100 million award, under which the company will issue securities to the department. While management noted it remains mindful of shareholder dilution, the issuance will further expand a share count that has nearly doubled – reaching 333 million diluted shares for the twelve months ended June 2026, up from 172 million two years earlier.
Management also said the timing of system deliveries and government-funded projects influences Rigetti’s revenue. One such delivery is a 108-qubit system for C-DAC in India. Management expects to count that $8.4 million order as revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026, after installation and acceptance testing. That single order is larger than Rigetti’s entire revenue in the second quarter.
Rigetti’s costs are rising as well. Operating expenses reached $30.3 million in the second quarter of 2026, up from $20.4 million a year earlier. Management also expects capital spending in 2026 to be higher than in prior years, largely for refrigeration and fab equipment. Management said its capital position provides sufficient runway. On August 20, Rigetti reorganized its leadership structure around customer deployments, and the shares fell about 5% that day. Operating expenses are the figure to watch when Rigetti next reports, expected in November 2026.
Still Holding Rigetti Computing After The Drop?
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