Mosaic Stock Lost 9% In One Week, What To Expect?

Mosaic stock (NYSE: MOS) has lost 8.7% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 1.7%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-12% vs 4.4%) and one month (-26% vs -8.5%). The stock rallied from $40 at the start of the year to $78 in April, however, it closed around $45 on 5th July. 

The Mosaic Company is one of the leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The firm posted lower than expected results in the first quarter of 2022, missing both the revenues and earnings estimates. Further, its sales volumes were down 7% and 33% y-o-y in April for the potash and phosphate segments, respectively. On a similar note, the trend continued in May, with all the units reporting negative growth in volumes. It is one of the key reasons behind negative sentiment toward the stock. 

Now, is Mosaic stock set to drop further, or could we expect some strength? We believe that there is a 88% chance of a rise in Mosaic stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Mosaic Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: MOS -26%, vs. S&P500 -8.5%; Underperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 88% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• The Mosaic Company stock lost 26% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8.5%
• A change of -26% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 26 times out of 2514 in the last ten years
• Of these 26 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 23 occasions
• This points to a 88% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MOS -12%, vs. S&P500 4.4%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 42% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• The Mosaic Company stock decreased 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 4.4%
• A change of -12% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 134 times out of 2514 in the last ten years
• Of these 134 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 56 occasions
• This points to a 42% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MOS -8.7%, vs. S&P500 -1.7%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

• The Mosaic Company stock lost 8.7% over a five-day trading period ending 07/05/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 1.7%
• A change of -8.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 106 times out of 2514 in the last ten years
• Of these 106 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 53 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how Mosaic Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/6/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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