MongoDB Stock To $219?
MongoDB (MDB) stock has fallen by 23.5% in less than a month, from $411.89 on 27th Jan, 2026 to $314.99 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $219 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell MongoDB Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on MDB stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 48%, with median peak return reaching 95%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
- Amphenol Stock And The AI Guidance Wall Street Is Still Sizing Up
- The SLB Paradox: Short-Term Friction, Long-Cycle Fuel
- The Overlooked Signal In GE Stock’s Shipping Delays
- What GE Vernova Stock’s Shadow Backlog Was Saying Before The Surge
- The Number That Puts Oracle Stock To The Test
- The Secret Chip Company That Could Power Amazon Stock Higher
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 11.4% |
| 3M | 30.9% |
| 6M | 59.8% |
| 12M | 47.7% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
MDB had 6 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 95% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 270 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -28% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | MDB Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | MDB | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 48% | 95% | -28% | 270 | ||||
| 3102025 | -31% | -8% | 73% | 144% | -19% | 303 | ||
| 6042024 | -32% | 6% | -5% | 51% | -37% | 188 | ||
| 9152022 | -31% | -6% | 53% | 85% | -41% | 307 | ||
| 5092022 | -38% | -12% | 4% | 50% | -46% | 93 | ||
| 3242021 | -30% | -0% | 43% | 106% | -14% | 237 | ||
| 3132020 | -31% | -18% | 181% | 267% | -14% | 336 | ||
MongoDB Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 20.9% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 25.0% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 16.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -13.3 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 463.5 |
Not sure if you can take a call on MDB stock? Consider portfolio approach
Portfolios Are The Smarter Way To Invest
Stocks soar and sink – the key is staying invested. A balanced portfolio helps you ride market volatility, boosts gains and reduces single stock risk.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.