How Will Meta Platforms Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $1.7 Tril in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $201 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $83 Bil in operating profits and net income of $60 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Meta Platforms’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 10%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -5.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/28/2026 | 10.4% | 0.0% | -3.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | -11.3% | -15.4% | -14.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 17.9% |
| 1/29/2025 | 1.6% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | -4.1% | -3.3% | -3.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 4.8% | 3.0% | 9.1% |
| 4/24/2024 | -10.6% | -11.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/1/2024 | 20.3% | 19.1% | 26.3% |
| 10/25/2023 | -3.7% | 4.1% | 12.9% |
| 7/26/2023 | 4.4% | 5.3% | -4.0% |
| 4/26/2023 | 13.9% | 13.2% | 20.7% |
| 2/1/2023 | 23.3% | 19.8% | 21.0% |
| 10/26/2022 | -24.6% | -30.3% | -14.2% |
| 7/27/2022 | -5.2% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 4/27/2022 | 17.6% | 27.7% | 9.5% |
| 2/2/2022 | -26.4% | -28.2% | -38.1% |
| 10/25/2021 | -3.9% | 0.4% | 2.6% |
| 7/28/2021 | -4.0% | -3.8% | -2.4% |
| 4/28/2021 | 7.3% | 2.6% | 8.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 10.4% | 5.3% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -11.0% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 23.3% | 27.7% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -26.4% | -30.3% | -38.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 4.7% | 0.6% | -27.6% |
| 3Y History | -16.5% | -26.6% | -14.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Meta Platforms stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Meta Platforms. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| META Earnings Dates | META | SNAP |
| 4/30/2025 | 4.2% | -12.4% |
| 10/25/2023 | -3.7% | -5.4% |
| 7/26/2023 | 4.4% | -14.2% |
| 2/1/2023 | 23.3% | -10.3% |
| 10/26/2022 | -24.6% | -11.2% |
| 7/27/2022 | -5.2% | -41.6% |
| 4/27/2022 | 17.6% | -7.9% |
| 10/25/2021 | -3.9% | -27.4% |
| 7/28/2021 | -4.0% | 20.9% |
| CORRELATION | 35.1% |
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