How Will MercadoLibre Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $92 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $29 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.2 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.0 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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MercadoLibre’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 15 positive and 3 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 83% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 15 positive returns = 6.5%, and median of the 3 negative returns = -10%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | -14.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.4% | -12.2% | -13.5% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 27.1% |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 17.8% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| 8/3/2022 | 16.2% | 19.5% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | 1.6% | -20.8% | -12.0% |
| 2/22/2022 | 3.7% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.7% | 1.3% | -28.5% |
| 8/4/2021 | 13.8% | 20.2% | 23.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 9 |
| # Negative | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.5% | 12.6% | 17.8% |
| Median Negative | -10.4% | -10.8% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 7.1% | 0.8% | 32.4% |
| 3Y History | 8.1% | 25.8% | 29.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of MercadoLibre stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before MercadoLibre. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MELI Earnings Dates | MELI | AMZN | EBAY |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -6.3% | 3.8% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -9.6% | 19.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | -0.8% | N/A* |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | -6.7% | N/A* |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | 11.1% | -2.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | N/A* | 1.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 5.6% | -3.3% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.4% | 9.6% | 6.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.5% | 14.6% | N/A* |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.6% | N/A* | -10.3% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.8% | -15.1% | -5.2% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.8% | -19.5% | 2.0% |
| 8/3/2022 | 16.2% | 14.1% | N/A* |
| 5/5/2022 | 1.6% | -19.5% | -11.7% |
| 2/22/2022 | 3.7% | 8.2% | N/A* |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.7% | 0.9% | -1.8% |
| 8/4/2021 | 13.8% | -6.8% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -7.0% | -16.6% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MELI
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