Will Medtronic Stock See Higher Levels?

MDT: Medtronic logo

Medtronic stock (NYSE: MDT) has fallen 9% in a month, underperforming the broader markets, with the S&P500 rising 3%. The company recently reported its Q4 FY22 results, which fell short of expectations. Medtronic’s revenue of $8.1 billion was down 1% y-o-y and fell short of the $8.4 billion consensus estimate. Global supply chain disruptions and lockdowns in China weighed on the revenue growth. The company’s earnings of $1.52 on a per share and adjusted basis were up 2% y-o-y but were below the $1.56 consensus estimate. Medtronic expects its fiscal 2023 revenue to rise in the mid-single digits and adjusted earnings to be up in the low-single digits.

Now that Medtronic stock has seen a fall of 9% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of a rise for MDT stock over the next month. Of 84 instances in the last ten years that MDT stock saw a twenty-one-day fall of 9% or more, 63 resulted in MDT stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 63 out of 84, or about a 75% chance of a rise in MDT stock over the next month. See our analysis of Medtronic Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving -4% or more over five days, the stock rose on 62% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving -7% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 54% of the occasions in the next ten days.
  • After moving -9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 75% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
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This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in MDT stock over the next five days, next ten days, and next month.

Medtronic (MDT) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: ABT highest at -0.2%; ISRG lowest at -5.6%
  • Ten-Day Return: ABT highest at 2.8%; MDT lowest at -6.9%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: ABT highest at 3.0%; MDT lowest at -8.7%

While MDT stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for TeleTech vs. Emergent Biosolutions.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jun 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 MDT Return -4% -7% 35%
 S&P 500 Return 1% -13% 86%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 2% -18% 224%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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