Which Stock Will Rally: NVIDIA or Microchip Technology?

MCHP: Microchip Technology logo
MCHP
Microchip Technology

Even as Microchip Technology fell -5.2% during the past Day, its peer NVIDIA may be a better choice. Consistently evaluating alternatives is core to sound investment approach. NVIDIA (NVDA) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Microchip Technology (MCHP) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in NVDA

  • NVDA’s quarterly revenue growth was 55.6%, vs. MCHP’s -2.0%.
  • In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 71.6%, ahead of MCHP’s -23.4%.
  • NVDA leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 58.1% and 3-year average of 51.0%.

A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Should you buy one stock you like or build a portfolio designed to win across cycles? Our numbers show that the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has turned stock-picking uncertainty into market-beating consistency. This portfolio is incorporated in the asset allocation strategy of Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager and Trefis partner — whose asset allocation framework yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%.

MCHP develops and sells semiconductor products and microcontrollers for embedded control in automotive, industrial, communications, lighting, power supplies, and motor control applications worldwide. NVDA provides graphics, compute, and networking solutions for gaming, visualization, datacenters, and automotive markets, with a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co.

Valuation & Performance Overview

Relevant Articles
  1. Why Is Lyft Stock Down 16%?
  2. Why Is Uber Stock Down 10%?
  3. Why Did Wave Life Sciences Stock Jump 147%?
  4. What’s Happening With Planet Labs Stock?
  5. Is The 10% Rally In Lululemon Stock Justified?
  6. What Could Set Advanced Micro Devices Stock on Fire

  MCHP NVDA Preferred
     
Valuation      
P/EBIT Ratio 195.8 47.8 NVDA
     
Revenue Growth      
Last Quarter -2.0% 55.6% NVDA
Last 12 Months -23.4% 71.6% NVDA
Last 3 Year Average -14.9% 92.0% NVDA
     
Operating Margins      
Last 12 Months 3.7% 58.1% NVDA
Last 3 Year Average 21.0% 51.0% NVDA
     
Momentum      
Last 3 Year Return -8.0% 1217.2% MCHP

Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: MCHP Revenue Comparison | NVDA Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: MCHP Operating Income Comparison | NVDA Operating Income Comparison
 
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell NVDA Stock to see if NVIDIA’s edge holds up under the hood or if Microchip Technology still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell MCHP Stock).

Historical Market Performance

  2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total [1] Avg Best
Returns
MCHP Return 34% 27% -18% 31% -35% 6% 26%  
NVDA Return 122% 125% -50% 239% 171% 40% 3111% <===
S&P 500 Return 16% 27% -19% 24% 23% 14% 108%  
Monthly Win Rates [3]
MCHP Win Rate 58% 50% 42% 67% 25% 30%   45%  
NVDA Win Rate 75% 58% 42% 75% 75% 70%   66% <===
S&P 500 Win Rate 58% 75% 42% 67% 75% 70%   64%  
Max Drawdowns [4]
MCHP Max Drawdown -47% -4% -35% -2% -37% -38%   -27%  
NVDA Max Drawdown -16% -11% -62% -2% -4% -30%   -21%  
S&P 500 Max Drawdown -31% -1% -25% -1% -2% -15%   -12% <===

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year

 
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read NVDA Dip Buyer Analyses and MCHP Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.

Whatever your view on either of these stocks, investing in one or two stocks remains a risky proposition. Instead, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.