What Is The Likelihood Of Rise For McDonald’s Stock?

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Upside
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Trefis
MCD: McDonald's logo
MCD
McDonald's

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) rose by 2% in the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index declined by 3.9% over the same period. The company continues on its recovery path as sales continue to grow compared to the previous year. In Q2 2021 global comparable sales rose by 40.5% compared to Q2 2020 and by 6.9% compared to Q2 2019 with recovery seen across all segments. As per Trefis analysis McDonald’s valuation is $276 per share, indicating an upside potential of about 14%. 

Now, is MCD stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 67% chance of a rise in MCD stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on McDonald’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: MCD -1.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.2%; Overperformed market

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(24% event probability)

  • McDonald’s stock declined 1.4% over a five day trading period ending 10/01/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 2.2%
  • A change of -1.4% or more over five trading days has a 24% event probability, which has occurred 609 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

Ten Days: MCD 0.2%, vs. S&P500 -1.6%; Overperformed market

(61% event probability)

  • McDonald’s stock rose 0.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) that declined by 1.6%
  • A change of 0.2% or more over ten trading days has a 61% event probability, which has occurred 1529 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: MCD 2%, vs. S&P500 -3.9%; Overperformed market

(40% event probability)

  • McDonald’s stock rose 2% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) that declined by 3.9%
  • A change of 2% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 40% event probability, which has occurred 1009 times out of 2515 in the last ten years

While McDonald’s stock is likely to move higher in the near term, there are several peers in its sector that look like a Better Bet Than MCD Stock. Also, McDonald’s Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.

 

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