Mastercard Stock Has Lost 7% In A Week, What’s Next?

-2.22%
Downside
482
Market
471
Trefis
MA: Mastercard logo
MA
Mastercard

Mastercard stock (NYSE: MA) has lost around 6.9% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 2.3%). Further, if you look at the change over the last one month (21 trading days), the stock has decreased 3.4% vs a 1.1% rise in the S&P500. MA is the second largest electronic payments solutions company in the world. The recent decline in the stock price was due to the fear of a drop in consumer activity driven by the reintroduction of the lockdown restrictions in several parts of Europe. Further, the news of a new coronavirus variant in South Africa has made matters worse.

Now, is MA stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 75% chance of a rise in Mastercard stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Mastercard Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about Mastercard’s business, see our analysis on Mastercard Revenues.

Relevant Articles
  1. Up 36% Since The Start Of 2023, Where Is Mastercard Stock Headed?
  2. Where Is Mastercard Stock Headed?
  3. Where Is Mastercard Stock Headed?
  4. What To Expect From Mastercard Stock?
  5. Mastercard Stock Likely To Top The Earnings Consensus In Q4
  6. Is Mastercard Stock Fairly Priced?

Twenty-One Day: MA -3.4%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Underperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 75% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Mastercard stock lost 3.4% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
  • A change of -3.4% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 390 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 390 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 292 occasions
  • This points to a 75% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MA -8.5%, vs. S&P500 -1%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Mastercard stock decreased 8.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 1%
  • A change of -8.5% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 58 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 58 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 33 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MA -6.9%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Outperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Mastercard stock fell 6.9% over a five-day trading period ending 11/26/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.3%
  • A change of -6.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 54 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 54 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 37 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Nov 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
MA Return -3% -9% 214%
S&P 500 Return 1% 22% 105%
Trefis MS Portfolio Return -3% 46% 297%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/29/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates