Macy’s Stock Up 7% Over Last Ten Days. What’s Next?

Macy’s stock (NYSE: M), a department store chain, increased by 7% in the last ten trading days (two weeks). In comparison, the broader S&P500 index grew almost 8% over the same period. Macy’s announced a couple of strategic updates recently – which include opening four small-format stores at sites other than traditional malls this year and widening its existing partnership with WHP Global to open Toys “R” Us shops within every Macy’s store by mid-October. These initiatives seem to be in line with the changing consumer shopping patterns. In addition, the company saw better-than-expected profits in Q1 (which ended on April 30) and raised targets for the rest of the year. To add to this, the company’s newly found emphasis on growing digital channels is also paying off. Macy’s Q1 digital sales were 34% higher than in the comparable quarter in 2019 and comprised 33% of its overall sales.

However, Macy’s still faces headwinds with more than 700 of its stores still located at conventional malls. While Macy’s business has substantially improved since before entering the pandemic, its inconvenient locations and competition from off-price retailers such as TJX could likely contain this growth going forward. It might take a sustained period of continued revenue and profit growth for the company to outperform in the near term. Looking back three years, Macy’s stock is still almost 18% lower than the 2019 levels.

Now, is M stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 48% chance of a rise in M stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Macy’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data

[1] Returns of -6.4% or lower over a five-day period on 305 occasions out of 2516 (12%); Stock rose in the next five days in 141 of these 305 instances (46%)

[2] Returns of 7.3% or higher over a ten-day period on 404 occasions out of 2516 (16%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 181 of these 404 instances (45%)

[3] Returns of -10% or lower over a twenty-one-day period on 382 occasions out of 2514 (15%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 182 of these 382 instances (48%)