Has Buying Applied Digital Stock’s Dips Paid Off?
Applied Digital (APLD) stock has dropped 14% since a recent high on September 22, 2026. We found no news that explains the fall. The shares are now down 35% over three months, while the S&P 500 gained 3.5%. You may be tempted to buy, and past buyers faced the same choice after bigger drops many times since 2010. Has buying Applied Digital stock’s dips paid off?
Applied Digital’s Dips Paid Off More Often Than Not
Yes, more often than not, though not by a wide margin. We count a dip as a fall of 20% or more within 30 trading days. Applied Digital stock has had 54 of them since 2010. Of the 50 dips with a full year behind them, 29 were higher twelve months later.
The median return over those twelve months was 36%, so half the dips did better and half did worse. The newest dips are less than a year old, which is too recent to judge. Today’s drop is also shallower than the 20% falls in the record. These results show how bigger falls played out, not what this one will do. Most buyers of those dips also saw the shares drop further first.
Most Dip Buyers Saw The Shares Drop Further First
The extra drop was often deep. At the median, the shares fell another 40% after the dip date, measured from the price on that day. At that median, a $10,000 purchase would have been worth about $6,000 at its low point.
The wait was long as well. At the median, the best gain within a year came 152 days after the dip, or about five months. That best gain was 156% at the median, far more than the typical one-year result.
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 0.4% |
| 3M | 6.5% |
| 6M | 20.8% |
| 12M | 35.6% |
| 30 Day Dip | APLD Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | APLD | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 36% | 156% | -40% | 152 | ||||
| 9152026 | -21% | -0% | 0% | 7 | ||||
| 7072026 | -36% | 1% | -24% | 2 | ||||
| 2252026 | -24% | -0% | -29% | 92 | ||||
| 11202025 | -27% | -3% | -4% | 189 | ||||
| 7222025 | -21% | 5% | 175% | 353% | -8% | 310 | ||
| 1102025 | -22% | -3% | 351% | 361% | -59% | 367 | ||
| 8022024 | -30% | -2% | 236% | 251% | -26% | 368 | ||
| 1242024 | -27% | 6% | 35% | 123% | -50% | 306 | ||
| 11092023 | -25% | 1% | 60% | 92% | -50% | 348 | ||
| 7202023 | -20% | 6% | -31% | 32% | -69% | 5 | ||
| 3102023 | -29% | -5% | 130% | 448% | 0% | 137 | ||
| 12072022 | -28% | 2% | 311% | 540% | -6% | 230 | ||
| 9232022 | -26% | -12% | 257% | 544% | -5% | 305 | ||
| 5112022 | -30% | -15% | 18% | 98% | -64% | 21 | ||
| 1252022 | -30% | -7% | -3% | 80% | -67% | 127 | ||
| 12012021 | -21% | -0% | -33% | 71% | -69% | 182 | ||
| 8132021 | -23% | 4% | 58% | 249% | -39% | 74 | ||
| 6042021 | -24% | 3% | 418% | 502% | 0% | 144 | ||
| 11202020 | -24% | 2% | 38409% | 44286% | 0% | 340 | ||
| 7292020 | -46% | 4% | 15456% | 25456% | 0% | 278 | ||
| 4202020 | -43% | -5% | 11872% | 11872% | 0% | 365 | ||
| 3102020 | -41% | -11% | 3393% | 4125% | 0% | 352 | ||
| 1152020 | -42% | 6% | 581% | 593% | -1% | 334 | ||
| 10082019 | -33% | 1% | -2% | 98% | -60% | 275 | ||
| 8142019 | -51% | -4% | -20% | 100% | -60% | 330 | ||
| 4162019 | -29% | 4% | 100% | 155% | -50% | 77 | ||
| 1232019 | -21% | 1% | -17% | 158% | -49% | 160 | ||
| 7112018 | -50% | 3% | -21% | 59% | -38% | 356 | ||
| 1222018 | -34% | 8% | 65% | 717% | -40% | 130 | ||
| 11092017 | -46% | 3% | 79% | 600% | -49% | 204 | ||
| 5082017 | -27% | 2% | -67% | 18% | -82% | 143 | ||
| 9192016 | -22% | -2% | -42% | 62% | -83% | 59 | ||
| 7142016 | -23% | 3% | -30% | 95% | -80% | 126 | ||
| 4272016 | -27% | 4% | -1% | 61% | -33% | 204 | ||
| 1152016 | -24% | -9% | -7% | 50% | -23% | 307 | ||
| 11032015 | -29% | 9% | 57% | 67% | -17% | 43 | ||
| 5132015 | -30% | 2% | -7% | 74% | -13% | 90 | ||
| 11262014 | -35% | 11% | 36% | 147% | 0% | 258 | ||
| 9162014 | -49% | 3% | 179% | 228% | 0% | 329 | ||
| 4112014 | -24% | -2% | 21% | 193% | -56% | 192 | ||
| 2202014 | -47% | 0% | 153% | 525% | -6% | 11 | ||
| 12022013 | -52% | 4% | 335% | 770% | -22% | 91 | ||
| 10232013 | -43% | 4% | 418% | 614% | -36% | 131 | ||
| 7232013 | -76% | 3% | 245% | 900% | -10% | 223 | ||
| 2142013 | -75% | 4% | 140% | 240% | -40% | 116 | ||
| 11132012 | -29% | -4% | 12% | 296% | -40% | 50 | ||
| 6042012 | -25% | -7% | -67% | 120% | -67% | 212 | ||
| 12052011 | -25% | 2% | -83% | 0% | -92% | 0 | ||
| 10132011 | -50% | -1% | -85% | 100% | -94% | 46 | ||
| 6032011 | -25% | -2% | -90% | 11% | -97% | 4 | ||
| 3182011 | -23% | -2% | -97% | 60% | -98% | 5 | ||
| 2152011 | -29% | 5% | -84% | 60% | -98% | 27 | ||
| 12102010 | -33% | 5% | -80% | 167% | -80% | 94 | ||
| 1042010 | -40% | 2% | -22% | 78% | -67% | 2 | ||
Those past drops are a guide to how such falls played out. Applied Digital’s business has changed since most of them. By management’s count, the company grew from one AI data center campus to five in a year.
Is Applied Digital’s Business Strong Enough To Repeat That?
Partly. Applied Digital’s sales are growing fast, but the company still loses money. Revenue grew 229% over the last twelve months. Most of that revenue comes from the HPC hosting business, HPC being short for high-performance compute. In that business, Applied Digital builds AI data centers and leases them to hyperscalers, the largest cloud companies.
Management said on the fiscal Q4 2026 call that the company holds $36 billion of long-term lease contracts. The operating margin, which is operating profit as a share of sales, was -35% over the last twelve months. That is a loss, against an 18.6% margin for the S&P 500.
Applied Digital’s operating margin has improved in each of the last three years. Even with its operating loss, cash from operations was positive, at 15.6% of sales. The stock still costs far more per dollar of sales than the market, though. Applied Digital trades at 12.2 times its sales, against 3.1 times for the S&P 500.
Applied Digital’s debt, before counting its cash, equals 72% of its market value. For the S&P 500, the same measure is 21%. If you buy now, you are betting that Applied Digital can turn its leases into profit despite that debt.
If the operating margin keeps improving, the old pattern of recoveries is easier to believe. If it stops improving, you are paying 12.2 times sales for a business that still loses money. Do you expect Applied Digital to turn those leases into profit soon enough for its old pattern of recoveries to repeat?
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