Is The 21% Drop In LUV Stock, A Buying Opportunity?
Southwest Airlines stock has fallen by 21.2% in less than a month, from levels of $37.70 on 7/14/2025 to $29.56 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Southwest Airlines passes basic quality checks. However, it only has one past instance where it dipped sharply (>30% in 30 days), and returned 69% in one year and 69% as peak return subsequently. LUV operates scheduled passenger air transportation in the U.S. and nearby markets with a fleet of 728 Boeing 737s, serving 121 destinations across 42 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico.
Price behaviour is one thing, but what do the fundamentals say? Read Buy or Sell LUV Stock to see the full picture.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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- After A 21% Slide, Is LUV Stock Worth A Look?
- LUV Stock Down -18% after 5-Day Loss Streak
- LUV Lost 12% In A Week. Past Slides Turned Into Crashes.
- S&P 500 Movers | Winners: UAL, DAL, LUV | Losers: AXON, PTC, FTNT
- How Will Southwest Airlines Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -5.0% |
| 3M | -9.0% |
| 6M | 8.0% |
| 12M | 69.2% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
LUV had 1 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 69% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 365 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -34% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | LUV Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | LUV | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 69% | 69% | -34% | 365 | ||||
| 3122020 | -36% | -24% | 69% | 69% | -34% | 365 | ||
Southwest Airlines Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 1.6% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 9.3% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 6.7% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 4.1 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 23.7 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.