What’s Next For L’Oreal Stock After A 6% Rise Last Month?

-2.29%
Downside
74.41
Market
72.71
Trefis
LRLCY: L'Oreal logo
LRLCY
L'Oreal

L’Oreal stock (OTCMKTS: LRLCY) is up almost 6% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little over 3%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, the stock has returned -0.6% and 0.4%, roughly in line with the market on both occasions. L’Oreal reported Q3 ’21 sales at $9.01 billion, up from $7.93 billion in Q3 ’20, seeing a YoY growth of around 13%. Sales for the first nine months of FY ’21 stand at $26.13 billion, up from $22.67 billion for the first nine months of FY ’20. L’Oreal has benefited from the fact that hair and skin care demand has sustained its growth, while makeup and fragrance demand has risen with people stepping out more often. The company expected this demand growth to continue, leading to a strong full-year 2021 performance.

Now, is L’Oreal stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 59% chance of a rise in LRLCY stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on LRLCY Stock Chance of Rise. For details about L’Oreal’s revenues, see L’Oreal Revenues: How Does LRLCY Make Money?

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Twenty-One Day: LRLCY 5.8%, vs. S&P500 3.2%; Outperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • LRLCY stock rose 5.8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.2%
  • A change of 5.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 406 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 406 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 240 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: LRLCY 0.4%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market

(59% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • LRLCY stock rose a marginal 0.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.3%
  • A change of 0.4% or more over ten trading days is a 59% likelihood event, which has occurred 1472 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1472 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 821 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: LRLCY -0.6%, vs. S&P500 0.03%; Underperformed market

(28% likelihood event; 65% probability of rise over next five days)

  • LRLCY stock dropped a marginal 0.6% over a five-day trading period ending 11/22/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of just 0.03%
  • A change of -0.6% or lower over five trading days (one week) is a 28% likelihood event, which has occurred 701 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 701 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 456 occasions
  • This points to a 65% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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