After Underperforming The Markets, Can L’Oreal Stock Rally?

-9.45%
Downside
74.73
Market
67.67
Trefis
LRLCY: L'Oreal logo
LRLCY
L'Oreal

L’Oreal stock (OTCMKTS: LRLCY) is up just 0.6% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was up 3.7% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 1.4% and 0.9%, performing worse than the broader markets on both occasions. L’Oreal’s most recent Q3 2022 sales update report, saw revenue for the first three quarters of 2022 rising around 12.4% YoY at constant exchange rates. Additionally, an 8.1% positive foreign exchange impact saw reported revenue figures rise 20.5% over this period. The growth was primarily driven by the active cosmetics segment, which reported a growth of 31.5% over this period.

Now, is LRLCY stock set to continue its strong underperformance or could we expect a bounce? We believe that there is a strong 59% chance of a rise in LRLCY stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on LRLCY Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s revenue and how it makes money, see L’Oreal (LRLCY) Revenues: How Does LRLCY Make Money?. 

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  3. L’Oreal Stock Looks Set For A Rally On The Back Of Strong Earnings Growth
  4. Forecast Of The Day: L’Oreal Makeup Revenues
  5. Down 13% In The Past Month, L’Oreal Stock Now Looks Like A Buy
  6. What’s Next For L’Oreal Stock After A 6% Rise Last Month?

Twenty-One Day: LRLCY 0.6%, vs. S&P500 3.7%; Underperformed market

(50% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • LRLCY stock rose 0.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.7%
  • A change of 0.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 50% likelihood event, which has occurred 1266 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1266 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 750 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: LRLCY 0.9%, vs. S&P500 5%; Underperformed market

(44% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • LRLCY stock rose just 0.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5%
  • A change of 0.9% or more over ten trading days is a 44% likelihood event, which has occurred 1100 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1100 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 588 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: LRLCY 1.4%, vs. S&P500 5.2%; Underperformed market

(37% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

  • LRLCY stock gained 1.4% over a five-day trading period ending 10/26/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 5.2% over this period.
  • A change of 1.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 37% likelihood event, which has occurred 937 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 937 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 476 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Oct 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 LRLCY Return 0% -33% 75%
 S&P 500 Return 6% -20% 70%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 4% -23% 204%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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