How Will Lowe’s Companies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Lowe’s Companies (NYSE:LOW) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. The company has $121 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $88 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $10 billion in operating profits and net income of $6.6 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Lowe’s Companies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 1.7%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -3.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 5/20/2026 | 1.2% | -0.7% | 1.8% |
| 2/25/2026 | -5.6% | -7.5% | -15.2% |
| 11/19/2025 | 4.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% |
| 8/20/2025 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 4.4% |
| 5/21/2025 | -1.7% | -2.9% | -8.0% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.9% | -1.0% | -4.3% |
| 11/19/2024 | -4.6% | 1.3% | -8.1% |
| 8/20/2024 | -1.2% | 3.0% | 5.5% |
| 5/21/2024 | -1.9% | -6.0% | -0.7% |
| 2/27/2024 | 1.8% | 4.7% | 8.7% |
| 11/21/2023 | -3.1% | -2.1% | 8.6% |
| 8/22/2023 | 3.7% | 2.4% | -1.2% |
| 5/23/2023 | 1.7% | 1.3% | 5.7% |
| 3/1/2023 | -5.6% | -4.1% | -6.7% |
| 11/16/2022 | 3.0% | 2.7% | -0.4% |
| 8/17/2022 | 0.6% | -3.1% | -10.8% |
| 5/18/2022 | -5.3% | -4.8% | -11.6% |
| 2/23/2022 | 0.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| 11/17/2021 | 0.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% |
| 8/18/2021 | 9.6% | 11.6% | 14.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -3.1% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 11.6% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -7.5% | -15.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -0.8% | 22.5% | 12.8% |
| 3Y History | 12.3% | 14.5% | 10.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Lowe’s Companies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Lowe’s Companies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW Earnings Dates | LOW | FND | BLDR | SHW | TSCO |
| 5/20/2026 | 1.2% | N/A* | N/A* | -3.5% | -11.7% |
| 2/25/2026 | -5.6% | 4.3% | -0.1% | 1.4% | -7.6% |
| 11/19/2025 | 4.0% | N/A* | N/A* | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| 8/20/2025 | 0.3% | N/A* | N/A* | -0.4% | -0.5% |
| 5/21/2025 | -1.7% | N/A* | N/A* | 4.8% | -3.4% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.9% | 1.5% | -0.3% | 1.4% | -5.0% |
| 11/19/2024 | -4.6% | N/A* | 5.0% | -5.3% | -6.1% |
| 8/20/2024 | -1.2% | N/A* | 4.1% | 6.9% | -1.9% |
| 5/21/2024 | -1.9% | N/A* | -19.0% | -2.2% | 2.8% |
| 2/27/2024 | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | N/A* | 4.6% |
| 11/21/2023 | -3.1% | N/A* | N/A* | -1.5% | -4.7% |
| 8/22/2023 | 3.7% | N/A* | N/A* | 3.0% | 4.2% |
| 5/23/2023 | 1.7% | N/A* | N/A* | -0.7% | -1.7% |
| 3/1/2023 | -5.6% | 0.2% | 4.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/16/2022 | 3.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | -3.5% |
| 8/17/2022 | 0.6% | 13.5% | N/A* | -8.8% | -4.3% |
| 5/18/2022 | -5.3% | -5.4% | 0.6% | 9.4% | N/A* |
| 2/23/2022 | 0.2% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | 1.0% |
| 11/17/2021 | 0.4% | -7.0% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| CORRELATION | 24.0% | 10.3% | 1.2% | 42.4% | |
* N/A indicates no comparable post-earnings session for that peer in that quarter
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