Lincoln National Corporation Stock Gained 7% In One Week, What’s Next?
Lincoln National Corporation’s stock (NYSE: LNC) has gained 7% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.6%). Further, the same pattern was observed over the last ten days (9.6% vs 5.2%). That said, the trend was quite opposite before that – it has lost 45% YTD and 30% MTD.
The firm is an American holding company that operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses. It announced last week that it has priced two underwritten public offerings of depositary shares, worth $1 billion in aggregate, representing interests in preferred stock. Further, Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock status from neutral to buy. Overall, the above two factors were primarily responsible for the recent run up in the stock.
Now, is LNC stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 74% chance of a rise in LNC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Lincoln National Corporation’s Stock Chance of Rise.
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Twenty-One Day: LNC -21%, vs. S&P500 8.4%; Underperformed market
(2% likelihood event; 74% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- Lincoln National Corporation stock lost 21% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 8.4%
- A change of -21% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 53 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 53 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 39 occasions
- This points to a 74% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: LNC 9.6%, vs. S&P500 5.2%; Outperformed market
(7% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- Lincoln National Corporation stock increased 9.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 5.2%
- A change of 9.6% or more over ten trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 171 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
- Of these 171 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 99 occasions
- This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Five Day: LNC 7.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.6%; Outperformed market
(7% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)
- Lincoln National Corporation stock gained 7.1% over a five-day trading period ending 11/18/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.6%
- A change of 7.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 168 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
- Of these 168 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 91 occasions
- This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
| Returns | Nov 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 YTD [1] |
2017-22 Total [2] |
| LNC Return | -30% | -45% | -43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 2% | -17% | 77% |
| Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio | 3% | -20% | 217% |
[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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