Lincoln National (LNC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $45.29 | Market Cap: $8.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Multi-line Insurance
Lincoln National (LNC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $45.29Market Cap: $8.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Multi-line Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 33%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 29% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% | Key risksLNC key risks include [1] vulnerability to financial strength rating downgrades due to concerns over its capital and RBC ratio, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -388% | ||
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 33%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 29% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -388% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% |
| Key risksLNC key risks include [1] vulnerability to financial strength rating downgrades due to concerns over its capital and RBC ratio, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LNC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for Lincoln National (LNC) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Lincoln National's Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations. The company reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025, surpassing analyst estimates for earnings per share (EPS) with an adjusted operating income of $2.04 per diluted share, exceeding the $1.88 consensus. This earnings beat, despite a revenue miss, led to a notable positive market reaction, with LNC shares rising significantly in pre-market trading.
2. Strong Performance Across Key Business Segments. The company demonstrated "broad-based momentum" in its Q3 2025 results. Annuities delivered increased operating income and robust sales growth, up 32% year-over-year. Life Insurance showed solid results, and Group Protection saw a 38% increase in sales year-over-year, alongside higher premiums, all contributing to the company's strong performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LNC Return | -11% | 39% | -54% | -6% | 25% | 51% | 2% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 36% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 9% | 90% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LNC Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 63% | 53% | 58% | 57% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LNC Max Drawdown | -71% | -9% | -56% | -36% | -3% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -3% | -15% | -19% | -4% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRU, MET, PFG, EQH, VOYA. See LNC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 298.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -72.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 258.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1386.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,132 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TRV, MET, AIG, HIG, PRU
In The Past
Lincoln National's stock fell -74.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -74.9% loss requires a 298.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lincoln National
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 78.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.1 |
| Rev LTM | 17,128 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 2,682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,405 |
| CFO LTM | 2,760 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,513 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.1 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 6.8 |
| P/E | 11.7 |
| P/CFO | 5.7 |
| Total Yield | 11.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | -2.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.8% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annuities | 185,599 | 167,210 | 201,732 | 184,678 | 167,443 |
| Life Insurance | 108,932 | 95,413 | 105,208 | 101,941 | 92,561 |
| Retirement Plan Services | 46,793 | 41,887 | 47,625 | 45,372 | 40,184 |
| Other Operations | 21,375 | 20,796 | 22,214 | 23,756 | 25,106 |
| Group Protection | 9,714 | 9,802 | 10,522 | 10,201 | 9,467 |
| Total | 372,413 | 335,108 | 387,301 | 365,948 | 334,761 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| 7/31/2025 | 11.4% | 15.3% | 25.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.8% | 1.5% | -1.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | 5.9% | 15.3% | 5.4% |
| 10/31/2024 | 3.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 2.3% | -13.2% | -3.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -2.7% | 5.8% | 19.1% |
| 2/8/2024 | -2.5% | 0.6% | -0.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 5.2% | 11.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -6.0% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 17.9% | 58.0% |
| Max Negative | -33.1% | -37.0% | -34.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Multi-line Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |