Eli Lilly Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain?
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock is up 25.3% in 21 trading days. The rally reflects robust sales of its GLP-1 drugs and a strong pipeline, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Eli Lilly stands today.
- Size: Eli Lilly is a $921 Bil company with $53 Bil in revenue currently trading at $1,025.28.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 36.8% and operating margin of 43.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.04 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.04
- Valuation: Eli Lilly stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 66.7 and P/EBIT multiple of 51.8
These metrics point to a Very Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Attractive but Volatile.
That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is LLY stock if markets turn south? While we like to ride the momentum when the fundamentals check out (see Buy or Sell LLY Stock) – we stay wary of potential bull traps.
This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose LLY stock falls 20-30% to $718 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. While a single stock can excite, it rarely sustains. Financial advisors who win long term use disciplined allocation – blending equities, gold, and alternatives through trusted partners like ours.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: LLY provides innovative pharmaceuticals globally, including treatments for cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, and autoimmune diseases such as psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis.
2022 Inflation Shock
- LLY stock fell 18.7% from a high of $272.71 on 17 August 2021 to $221.60 on 28 September 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 December 2021
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $1,025.28 on 16 November 2025 $1,025.28
| LLY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -18.7% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 78 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- LLY stock fell 22.9% from a high of $169.13 on 8 July 2020 to $130.46 on 30 October 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 December 2020
| LLY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -22.9% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 47 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- LLY stock fell 18.5% from a high of $131.02 on 26 March 2019 to $106.79 on 19 July 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 December 2019
| LLY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -18.5% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 154 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- LLY stock fell 54.6% from a high of $60.56 on 20 April 2007 to $27.47 on 5 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 April 2014
| LLY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -54.6% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1873 days | 1480 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low LLY could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.