Ulta Beauty Stock Down 24%,Time to Buy?
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock has fallen by 24.2% in less than a month, from $706.82 on 17th Feb, 2026 to $535.72 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, ULTA stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 35% , with median peak return reaching 63%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 7.8% |
| 3M | 19.3% |
| 6M | 26.0% |
| 12M | 35.4% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ULTA had 11 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 63% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 308 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -8.3% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ULTA Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ULTA | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 35% | 63% | -8% | 308 | ||||
| 3122025 | -20% | -8% | 63% | 115% | -4% | 342 | ||
| 4152024 | -21% | -1% | -19% | 3% | -27% | 255 | ||
| 5262023 | -21% | 2% | -10% | 35% | -12% | 292 | ||
| 7092020 | -24% | 4% | 79% | 83% | -1% | 362 | ||
| 3122020 | -28% | -24% | 60% | 75% | -35% | 364 | ||
| 8302019 | -33% | -2% | -2% | 27% | -46% | 174 | ||
| 12212018 | -21% | -14% | 10% | 59% | -2% | 208 | ||
| 3022018 | -20% | -4% | 61% | 63% | 0% | 364 | ||
| 12062013 | -27% | 3% | 35% | 38% | -14% | 364 | ||
| 3152013 | -24% | 5% | 30% | 77% | -0% | 235 | ||
| 8172011 | -21% | -11% | 71% | 85% | -8% | 308 | ||
Ulta Beauty Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 5.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 7.3% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 11.3% | Pass |
Not sure if you can take a call on ULTA stock? Consider portfolio approach
Smart Investing Begins With Portfolios
Stocks soar and sink – the key is staying invested. A balanced portfolio helps you ride market volatility, boosts gains and reduces single stock risk.
Beating the market consistently is hard, but the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio makes it look achievable. By selecting 30 high-conviction stocks, the HQ strategy has historically outpaced the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. See how this curated selection delivers superior risk-adjusted returns in our detailed performance factsheet.