What Will Decide Eli Lilly Stock Over The Next Six Months?
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Over the twelve months to November 4, 2026, Eli Lilly (LLY) stock returned 59.2%, compared with 13.5% for the S&P 500. During the October 29 call, management raised its 2026 revenue forecast to between $91 billion and $92 billion, up from about $86 billion in August. Management also said its first forecast for 2027 is still to come. Here is what could move Eli Lilly stock over the next six months.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Lilly Innovation Day, where management will share more on its pipeline | December 7, 2026 | Either way |
| First 2027 financial forecast, on the fourth-quarter call | January 2027 | Either way |
| Lower U.S. net prices as new coverage shifts toward Medicare and Medicaid | through 2027 | Against the stock |
| Foundayo rollout in all major markets | during 2027 | In its favor |
Lilly’s 2027 Forecast
Management will give that forecast on the fourth-quarter call. The company placed the call in January 2027, although the earnings calendar lists the report for February 2027. The forecast starts from a 2026 that includes about $2 billion of one-time revenue, mostly from milestone payments and changes in estimates for rebates and discounts. Management does not expect this revenue to recur. So the 2027 forecast is the first look at how fast Lilly expects to grow without that revenue. The number to watch is the 2027 revenue range, set beside the 2026 revenue Lilly reports on the same call.
Drug Prices In Lilly’s Home Market
Lower prices are already here. On the October 29 call, management said Lilly’s U.S. price fell 10% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, excluding a favorable adjustment to estimates for rebates and discounts. Management expects commercial insurance access to stay relatively stable through 2027. Most new coverage is expected to come from Medicare and Medicaid, a mix with a lower net price. Medicare’s new coverage is for obesity drugs such as Zepbound. Zepbound and Mounjaro together brought in more than $16 billion of revenue in the third quarter. Management has said that, as in past years, it expects higher volumes to more than make up for lower net prices. Lilly’s U.S. price change in the fourth-quarter report is the figure to watch.
Foundayo’s Rollout Abroad
Foundayo, Lilly’s oral obesity medicine, went on sale in the UK, Mexico and Saudi Arabia in the third quarter. Management expects a rollout in all major markets in 2027. At home, about four in ten U.S. patients starting an oral obesity medicine choose Foundayo, and the number of new Foundayo patients doubled in the third quarter from the second. Abroad, Lilly starts from the lead. The company’s share of incretin sales outside the U.S. reached about 58% in the third quarter, up nearly 4 percentage points from the second quarter. The count of markets where Foundayo is on sale is the measure to watch.
Can You Hold Eli Lilly Stock Through These Dates?
Lilly stock has fallen hard inside the past year already. From its close on November 25, 2025, the stock dropped 23.3% by April 29, 2026, a slide of 105 trading sessions. That low came the day before the April 30 earnings call, and the stock then rose 13.2% over the next two sessions.
If a fall of that size would push you to sell before Lilly gives its 2027 forecast, the holding is too large for the risks ahead. A stake you could watch drop that far without selling is one you could keep through them.
Does This Mean You Should Act On LLY?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
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