Will Levi’s Q2 Earnings Follow Historical Patterns?

Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE: LEVI) is set to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Thursday, July 10, 2025. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $1.37 billion. This represents a 19% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 5% fall in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of $0.16 per share and $1.44 billion in revenue. Historically, LEVI’s stock has shown a tendency to outperform following earnings announcements, having increased 53% of the time with a median one-day rise of 4.2% and a maximum observed increase of 9%. Separately see, What To Expect From Conagra Stock Post Q4 Results?

U.S. tariffs could pressure costs, though Levi’s management anticipates only a minimal impact on Q2 margins and is considering selective price increases. Organic revenue is expected to grow 3.5%–4.5% in Q2, with gross margin expanding by 80–100 basis points. For the full year, revenue is projected to decline by 1%–2% (excluding tariff effects), while gross margin is expected to rise by roughly 100 basis points to 61.6%.

The company has $7.8 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $647 Mil in operating profits and net income of $356 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself before the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

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Levi’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

• There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 4.2%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -7.7%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

LEVI Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Levi Strauss, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.